Recent gold market volatility has intensified, but institutional long-term bullish logic remains unshaken. Doug Moglia, Macro and Market Strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, stated clearly in a recent report that the long-term bull market structure for gold remains intact. He forecasts that the gold price will break through $5,500 by 2027 and reach $8,000 before 2030, with the potential to surge to $10,000 in an overshoot scenario. Moglia characterizes this gold bull market as the third major long-term bull cycle since the 1970s. He argues that the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent sanctions on Russian foreign exchange reserves fundamentally altered the reserve management logic of global central banks. Gold, as a global macro asset with no issuer and no counterparty risk, has become the primary beneficiary of this systemic shift. He simultaneously warns that as Western financial investors enter the market on a large scale through channels like ETFs, the marginal pricing power is shifting towards momentum-driven capital, thereby increasing short-term volatility risks. This assessment resonates with views from other institutional analysts. According to prior reports, Wall Street analyst Ed Dowd anticipates the gold price will reach around $10,000 per ounce by approximately 2030. Similarly, "Wall Street Prophet" and Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni also projects gold will hit $10,000 by the end of 2029, viewing gold not merely as a defensive tool but potentially as a growth engine on par with equity assets. The Third Long-Term Bull Market: Driven by Systemic Shift, Not Cyclical Fluctuations Moglia examines the current gold bull market within a historical context in his report. He notes that gold experienced two significant long-term bull markets over the past 50 years: the first began with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and ended in January 1980; the second started in February 2001 and concluded in September 2011, lasting about a decade. The current bull market, initiated in 2022, has only been running for about four years, with a cumulative gain of approximately 200%. "History suggests that long-term bull markets typically last nearly a decade, and the current one is still in its early stages," Moglia wrote. He emphasizes that the key conditions needed to end this bull cycle have not yet materialized—namely, a reversal in gold's status as a preferred reserve asset. "There is currently no indication that this trend is reversing," he stated. In Moglia's view, the core catalyst for this bull market is the precedent set by Western sanctions on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022. "Global central banks have realized that reserve assets held within the dollar-euro system face political and legal risks. This has fundamentally changed how central banks manage reserves and assess sovereign autonomy," he wrote. Central Bank Buying Establishes a Floor, ETF Inflows Push the Ceiling Higher The demand structure supporting gold prices has evolved significantly in recent years. Moglia points out that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual mine production. In 2025, central bank purchases moderated to 863 tons, but this gap was filled by large-scale entry from Western financial investors via ETFs—global ETF gold holdings surged nearly 20%, exceeding 3,000 tons. "We expect central bank gold demand to persist, with the share of gold reserves (currently around 31%) likely to gradually converge towards the global share of dollar reserves (56%)," Moglia said. He believes the price-insensitive nature of central bank demand will provide gold prices with a higher floor and greater upside potential. However, he also cautions about risks: as marginal pricing power shifts towards momentum-driven financial investors, the probability of sharp market corrections increases. "The sharp decline in precious metals in early 2026 is a classic example of rapid deleveraging following speculative leverage build-up," he wrote. Multiple Macro Risks Converge, Strengthening the Bullish Case for Gold Beyond central bank purchases and ETF inflows, Moglia lists several macro factors that continue to support gold. First is the risk of the Federal Reserve's independence being questioned. He notes that if Fed policy faces political interference, it would undermine confidence in the U.S. financial system and the dollar, thereby benefiting monetary metals like gold. Second is the ongoing accumulation of U.S. fiscal risks, which Moglia believes may worsen before improving. Additionally, geopolitical shocks—including the recent Iran war—are increasing investor interest in allocating to gold. On a broader commodity cycle level, Moglia points out that electrification, AI infrastructure development, manufacturing reshoring, energy security, and years of underinvestment are collectively driving commodities to become important portfolio diversification tools again, with precious metals leading this commodity cycle. Silver's Upside Narrows, Mining Stocks May Offer Better Value Compared to gold, Moglia's short-term outlook for silver is more cautious. He notes that silver's gain in 2025 exceeded 152%, far outpacing gold's 92%, but it subsequently experienced a sharp correction in early 2026. The gold-to-silver ratio has returned to its long-term average range of 50-60, after briefly touching 100 in May 2025 (the second such occurrence in nearly 50 years). "Given this normalization in the ratio, we believe the tactical upside for silver relative to gold is now more limited," Moglia stated. He points out that while over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial uses (including solar, electric vehicles, and semiconductors) and the market has been in a structural supply deficit since 2021, its price movements are still primarily driven by sentiment, policy, currency exchange rates, and incremental investment demand. The direct impact of industrial supply-demand fundamentals on price is relatively limited. In this context, Moglia believes gold and silver mining stocks may offer a more attractive risk-reward profile. He notes that the current ratio of gold and silver mining stocks to spot gold prices is about 0.7, on par with 2020 highs but significantly below levels seen during the 2000s bull cycle, indicating clear room for revaluation. Simultaneously, mining companies' operating profit margins are near 40%, the highest since 2011, with the top five gold and silver miners expected to generate approximately $20 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with free cash flow margins close to 30%. "Unlike physical gold, mining stocks maintain operational leverage to gold prices while also providing positive cash flow to shareholders," Moglia wrote. "We view periodic market pullbacks as opportunities to establish positions."