The 2025 Analyst Conference, often referred to as the "Oscars of the Capital Market," kicked off on November 28, bringing together hundreds of industry research chiefs, public and private fund managers, and authoritative scholars to explore investment strategies for navigating economic cycles. The event gathered top-tier talent from both the research and investment sectors.
Li Yang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, and Vice Chairman of the First Venture Bond Research Institute, attended the conference and delivered a speech.
Li Yang highlighted that declining interest rates have multifaceted effects—reducing financing costs for the real economy while compressing the net interest margins of commercial banks to a historic low of 1.42%, thereby pressuring financial institutions to transform.
He noted that structural changes in social financing were particularly pronounced in the first ten months of this year. Data shows that RMB deposits reached 325.55 trillion yuan, while loans stood at 270.61 trillion yuan, with deposits exceeding loans by 8.35 trillion yuan. Household deposits alone grew by 10.65 trillion yuan, marking the third consecutive year of "disintermediation." On the monetary supply front, M2 continued to expand, with M1 growing even faster, indicating improved liquidity. The leverage gap between assets and liabilities in the financial sector narrowed by early 2025, reflecting a trend of capital outflow from the banking system—a favorable environment for capital market development.
Declining interest rates have become a defining feature of China's financial landscape. Since 2015, interest rates have entered a downward trajectory, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds consistently falling. As of November 24, 2025, the 10-year CGB yield stood at 1.8210%, while the 30-year yield was 2.1586%. The weighted average lending rate for new loans dropped to 3.24% in September, with money market rates such as interbank lending and pledged repo also declining. Continued cuts in reserve requirement ratios have further driven rates lower. Globally, the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone have also maintained ultra-low or even negative interest rates, attributed to declining potential growth rates, financialization of the real economy, and shifts in monetary policy paradigms.
The trend has spurred reforms, with capital market development now a priority. China's financial structure has long been characterized by an underdeveloped capital market and low direct financing ratios, creating a mismatch of "abundant funds but scarce capital." Addressing this imbalance is a key focus of financial reforms in the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Asset management and M&A have emerged as critical drivers of capital market growth. The wealth management market is projected to exceed 32 trillion yuan by 2025, with rising demand for equity and hybrid products. Meanwhile, M&A has become a vital tool for restructuring in an era of stock economy optimization. The introduction of the "Six M&A Rules" has relaxed target criteria and streamlined approval processes, facilitating cross-sector deals, technology acquisition, and diversified IPO pathways—unlocking greater dynamism in the capital market.