J.P. Morgan: Anti-Competition Policies Transform China's Express Logistics Landscape, Favoring ZTO Express-W (02057) and SF Holding (06936)

Stock News
Oct 24

J.P. Morgan has released a research report stating that China's express logistics industry has become a model for the nation's anti-competition policies. Significant changes have emerged in pricing rules, package volume growth, and the competitive landscape over the past few months; the average prices and package volume trends in September also reflect regulatory intervention. The report notes that preliminary data for "Double 11" indicate steady consumer participation, but the extended promotional period and constantly changing subsidy strategies have created new uncertainties. Market responses show a resurgence of investor interest in the sector, although preferences are shifting. For instance, previously underperforming companies in the third quarter, such as ZTO Express-W (02057), SF Holding (06936), and JD Logistics (02618), are regaining attention. For Q3 this year, J.P. Morgan expects SF Holding's profits to rise by 3% year-on-year to 2.9 billion RMB, reflecting robust package volumes and strict cost management despite a high base. Additionally, under the anti-competition framework, ZTO is shifting industry competition from "volume-driven" to "profit-focused." J.P. Morgan's top picks are ZTO and SF, with ZTO receiving an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HK$187 for its H shares, and US$24 for its American depositary shares (ZTO.US); SF Holding has a target price of HK$48 for its H shares and RMB 51 for its A shares, both rated "Overweight." Meanwhile, JD Logistics has a target price of HK$15, also rated "Overweight."

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