The recent decline has been as "brutal" as the preceding rally was "frenzied." It is well known that gold's bull run has persisted for years, driven by central banks globally increasing their holdings as an alternative to the US dollar and escalating geopolitical risks. In recent weeks, a surge in buying from Chinese "speculative funds"—ranging from retail investors to large equity funds dabbling in commodities—significantly boosted the rally, pushing prices of gold, silver, and other metals to new record highs. According to Wind data, in January 2026, spot gold in London started at $4,318, reaching an intraday high of $5,598 on January 29, marking a monthly surge of 28.18%; meanwhile, COMEX gold futures peaked at $5,626.8, gaining over $1,300 within the month. Concurrently, international silver prices also embarked on a sharp ascent; London spot silver rose from around $70 per ounce in early January to break above $117 per ounce in late January, surging over 60% from the year's start to late January and over 38% for the month alone. COMEX silver futures hit a historic peak of $120 per ounce intraday on January 30. This epic surge set the stage for a dramatic and equally historic collapse. Last Friday, silver plummeted 26% in a single day, its largest-ever daily decline, while gold plunged 9%, suffering its worst daily performance in over a decade. Copper prices experienced an epic crash, nosediving after a sudden spike above $14,500 per ton. Simultaneously, the sell-off played out in China's non-ferrous metals sector; from January 29 to February 22, the Hong Kong-listed non-ferrous metals板块累计下跌超15% (sector accumulated a decline exceeding 15%), while A-share precious metals stocks collectively triggered a wave of limit-down losses. However, by February 3, the Hong Kong non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of stabilization: it opened strongly in the green, and although gains retreated to 0.31% during the morning session, the sector subsequently rallied continuously, with gains一度 exceeding 5%. Concept stocks like ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259), CMOC (03993), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), and Chifeng Gold (06693) all surged over 5%, with other constituent stocks following suit significantly.

So, is this sharp correction following the sector's frenzy a "golden opportunity"? Four major factors pricked the "frenzied bubble." Over the past year or two, gold initially rallied fervently due to the combined effects of central bank purchases, anticipated Fed rate cuts, geopolitical turmoil, and a weakening US dollar. The sharp correction by late January this year was triggered by a sudden shift in policy expectations, leading to a stampede of highly leveraged long positions and a technical correction—essentially a violent pullback after overheating. From a news perspective, three primary layers of factors are at play, as follows: First, a macro "hawkish" shadow: a sudden shift in Fed policy expectations. As understood by Zhitong Caijing, the "hawkish" expectations brought by the nomination of Warsh are likely the core trigger for this round of sharp adjustment. The previous week, strong market expectations for Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar supported rising metal prices. However, Trump's nomination of the relatively "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who advocates "balance sheet reduction," instantly reversed market expectations for easing, causing the dollar to strengthen and directly pressuring dollar-denominated gold, silver, and the broader commodities complex. Second, sentiment "receding": profit-taking and stampeding. Before the correction, the Hong Kong-listed non-ferrous metals sector had already surged over 240% from 2025 to date and over 30% year-to-date in 2026, accumulating substantial profits. When macro tailwinds suddenly reversed, the "excessively unanimous" long positioning structure was highly prone to reversal, triggering concentrated profit-taking and creating a "longs selling against longs" stampede, characteristic of a typical technical adjustment. Third, regulatory "cooling": exchanges raised risk control thresholds. Prior to the correction, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had preemptively increased trading margin requirements and price limit ranges for contracts like copper, aluminum, gold, and silver. This move aimed to curb overheated trading risks, raising costs for short-term speculative capital, objectively "cooling" the market, and amplifying subsequent volatility. Finally, sector "resonance": precious metals volatility sparked broad panic. Within the non-ferrous sector, precious metals (especially gold) possess the strongest financial attributes and are most sensitive to macro interest rates and dollar movements, thus often experiencing violent fluctuations first. Their sharp decline rapidly impacts overall market risk appetite, triggering capital outflows from the entire non-ferrous metals sector and causing industrial metals and minor metals to be "wrongfully sold off," resulting in a sector-wide联动下跌 (linked decline). Therefore, overall, this correction is viewed externally as a collision between short-term macro shocks, sentiment release, and excessively rapid long-term gains.

In secondary markets, a common saying goes, "When Mr. Market is having a discount sale, your task isn't to flee, but to bring a sack." So, after experiencing an epic crash, is the non-ferrous metals sector worth "prospecting"? Synthesizing views from多数投行、券商机构 (most investment banks and brokerages), the sector's stabilization after the暴跌 (plunge) does not constitute a clear "golden opportunity." It is seen as a technical sharp decline driven by short-term high volatility and profit-taking stampedes; the long-term logic remains intact, but signals for a firm stabilization are insufficient. Industrial metals, potentially oversold, may allow for phased accumulation, while precious metals are better approached after volatility subsides and confirming signals emerge. Among them, J.P. Morgan stated that the recent plunge in gold and silver was essentially a technical position unwinding triggered by overly crowded long positions and margin hikes, not a fundamental reversal of the underlying logic. The firm's strategists wrote in a research report on Sunday that gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge, with physical demand from central banks and retail investors still far stronger than expected. They forecast that gold prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and investor demand. Although the higher prices mean "thinner air," the structural bull market does not face崩溃风险 (crash risk). China Post Securities also pointed out: "The precious metals correction is not the end; look for bottom-fishing opportunities." The institution believes that short-term, due to profit-taking unwinding, prices may experience剧烈震荡 (sharp fluctuations), with further declines possible, but London gold could present opportunities to accumulate at lower levels between $4,800-$4,900 per ounce. Long-term, the de-dollarization trend will not reverse; this adjustment does not mark the end of the precious metals bull market, and investors should patiently wait for the price turning point. Additionally, China Post Securities noted that copper, experiencing significant price volatility, requires post-holiday observation of inventory drawdowns. Specifically, due to lowered 2026 production forecasts from companies like Freeport, Teck Resources, and Southern Copper, a supply-demand tightness is anticipated for copper in 2026. However, the market's pricing of supply-demand fundamentals may currently be weakening; it's advisable to wait for price volatility to decrease before observing post-holiday inventory drawdowns in the domestic market. As for aluminum, high prices are suppressing downstream demand, warranting a wait for better entry timing. On the supply side, domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects continue smooth production ramps, with industry daily output steadily increasing, sustaining the supply growth trend. Demand-side performance is weak; suppressed by high aluminum prices, downstream companies' willingness to procure is low, with expectations for declining operating rates; spot market transactions have generally陷入冷淡观望格局 (lapsed into a冷淡观望格局 (cold, wait-and-see pattern)). Coupled with continued inventory accumulation across the industry and a declining proportion of molten aluminum conversion, structural supply-demand imbalances have not been effectively alleviated. Following the sharp volatility in gold, silver, and copper markets, aluminum prices are also expected to enter a period of fluctuation and oscillation in the short term. Guotai Junan Securities (Note: input mentions "国泰海通证券", a possible conflation; interpreted as Guotai Junan based on common naming) stated that for tin, supply normalization expectations are resonating, shifting the price logic towards "de-premiumization." Recent tin price corrections were influenced by fading macro sentiment and long position stampedes; with Indonesia's RKAB approvals returning to normalcy and exchange trading活跃 (active), coupled with high ore prices accelerating production resumption in Myanmar, concerns over supply "disruptions" have significantly eased. Combined with downstream观望情绪 (wait-and-see sentiment) towards high-priced tin ingots, tin prices are transitioning from a "panic-driven" track to a "supply-demand normalization"轨道 (track).

In summary, it is evident that although the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a sharp decline and panic sentiment, the long-term drivers remain unchanged. The short-term correction is primarily due to macro sentiment and capital flows, not an impairment of intrinsic value. After the adjustment, valuation pressures for some high-quality leading companies have eased, but overall sector valuations have not yet entered historically extreme undervalued territory. Differentiation is apparent; it is not a case of "gold lying everywhere."