GF SEC has released a research report projecting that DPC DASH (01405) will achieve adjusted net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.0 billion, RMB 2.8 billion, and RMB 4.3 billion for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively. The company possesses strong brand momentum and significant expansion potential. Considering the gradual release of its profit scale and its ongoing rapid growth phase, the valuation methodology has been switched to PEG.

By referencing comparable companies, a 2026 PEG ratio of 1.3x is applied, corresponding to a fair value estimate of HK$71.92 per share. The "Buy" rating is maintained.

The key points from GF Securities' report are as follows:

The company's 2025 financial results met expectations (all figures in RMB unless stated otherwise).

For the second half of 2025, revenue was RMB 2.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 96 million, up 20% year-on-year.

For the full year 2025, revenue reached RMB 5.38 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase, and the adjusted net profit was RMB 188 million, rising 43% year-on-year.

Store expansion targets are being steadily advanced, with an acceleration planned for 2026.

In 2025, the company achieved a net increase of 307 stores (against a target of 300), comprising net additions of 190 stores in the first half and 117 in the second half, bringing the total store count to 1,315 by year-end. The target for 2026 is to open 350 new stores. As of March 20th, a net total of 140 new stores had been opened, with an additional 14 stores under construction and 65 stores already signed.

Leverage effects led to a slight decline in the store-level operating profit margin for 2025, while the headquarters expense ratio continued to improve.

In 2025, raw material costs as a percentage of revenue were 27.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. Employee costs were 34.0% of revenue, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. Specifically, store-level employee costs were 28.0%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to higher staffing investments in new markets and increased rider costs. Headquarters-level costs were 5.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and share-based compensation was 0.9%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The store-level operating profit margin was 13.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 3.5%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points.

Risk factors include macroeconomic fluctuations, expansion and management optimization falling short of expectations, and intensifying market competition.