瑞银近日发布报告，预计标普500指数将在2025年底达到6400点，相较上周五收盘价上涨约9%。
短期回调后，长线看涨
瑞银策略师认为，明年的上半年市场可能会经历约5%的回调，但在下半年有望迎来强劲反弹。他们指出：“随着盈利预期调整至更现实的水平，2025年下半年将展现更大的潜力。”
政策红利提振市场信心
报告指出，美国小盘股在2024年表现强劲，受益于特朗普政府可能带来的减税和监管宽松政策。这些利好因素激发了市场情绪，特别是对金融和小盘股板块的支撑显著。
自11月5日美国总统大选以来，标普500金融板块涨幅已超过6%，而小盘股ETF iShares Russell 2000（IWM）也录得2.6%的涨幅，高于标普500的1.3%。瑞银表示：“在新一届亲商政府的推动下，我们预计反垄断行动将显著减少，同时广泛的放松监管政策将进一步助力市场发展。”
尽管短期存在波动风险，但瑞银对2025年的股市表现充满信心，建议投资者关注受益于政策红利的板块及个股机会。
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