On February 25, Beijing time, international precious metals futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 1.25% to $5,160.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.57% to $87.07 per ounce. Analysts noted that signals from Federal Reserve officials indicating a commitment to maintaining high interest rates have cooled market expectations for rate cuts. This has enhanced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, reducing the safe-haven demand for gold and leading to a decline in its price.
DBS recently published a report stating that within just the first month of the new year, gold's performance has far exceeded investor expectations. On January 29, driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainties and a series of events unfavorable to the U.S. dollar, the price of gold surged to a record high of $5,595 per ounce. However, following the nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair, gold prices reversed sharply, plummeting by over 15%. Such significant price fluctuations indicate that speculative capital flows in the precious metals market remain highly active amid ongoing macroeconomic policy risks and geopolitical instability.
DBS believes that, beyond speculative capital, a shift in investor sentiment is increasingly positioning gold as a mainstream portfolio hedge. The bank encourages investors to look beyond current market volatility and focus on the fundamental drivers of gold. The report also emphasized that continued gold purchases by central banks represent a structural tailwind for gold—a factor that remains valid today. Compared to other forms of investment demand, central bank demand is more persistent and less sensitive to price fluctuations, which significantly helps establish a floor for gold prices.
Based on this analysis, DBS has raised its gold price targets for the first and second halves of 2026 to $5,300 and $6,250 per ounce, respectively. The bank also projects that the price of gold will reach $8,060 per ounce by 2030.
In related news, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice stating that, starting from the clearing time on February 24, the margin ratio for Au (T+D) and other contracts will be adjusted to 18%, and the daily price fluctuation limits will be adjusted to 17% from the next trading day. For Ag (T+D) contracts, the margin ratio will be adjusted to 24%, with daily price limits set at 23%. Additionally, the margin for CAu99.99 contracts will be adjusted to 180,000 yuan per lot.