In the nickel futures market, the conclusion of US-Iran negotiations triggered a concentrated shift in fund positions, amplifying gains. Overnight, LME nickel closed up 1%. The latest LME nickel settlement price was $17,710 per tonne, an increase of $175 or 1%, with a trading volume of 6,166 lots. In the domestic market, the overnight session for the main Shanghai nickel contract settled at 135,180 yuan per tonne, up 520 yuan or 0.39%. London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventories on June 22 were reported at 276,192 tonnes, a decrease of 24 tonnes from the previous day.
According to market analysis, Shanghai nickel futures opened mostly higher today. The main July 2607 contract opened at 136,080 yuan per tonne, up 840 yuan from the previous close. As of 9:15, the main July 2607 contract was quoted at 134,600 yuan per tonne, down 60 yuan. Shanghai nickel opened lower and trended downwards, with the market maintaining a weak and volatile pattern.
Macroeconomic Overview
The current global macroeconomic landscape is mixed, with significant divergence in the performance of major asset classes. Overseas, the conclusion of US-Iran negotiations has led to a temporary easing of energy sanctions, while the resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has heightened political uncertainty. The Federal Reserve has signaled a more hawkish stance, significantly boosting expectations for interest rate hikes within the year. The US dollar index has hit a new phase high, putting pressure on the US technology sector, which has retreated, while value-oriented sectors have shown relative resilience. Domestically, China's June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, and new policies to stabilize foreign investment have been implemented, with expectations for growth stabilization continuing to intensify. Pressured by a stronger US dollar, industrial metals are generally weak, and nickel prices are expected to trade with weak volatility during this session.
Full-Spectrum Analysis of Nickel Supply-Demand Dynamics
The raw material segment presents a layered structure. Laterite nickel ore supply, directly constrained by Indonesian policies, has seen its elasticity significantly reduced, making it the tightest link in the supply chain. Global reserves of sulfide nickel ore continue to decline, with high-grade sulfide mine capacity shrinking year by year, resulting in limited production growth. In the intermediate product segment, the economic viability of the nickel matte conversion route is constrained, slowing the pace of new capacity releases. Nickel-cobalt hydroxide (MHP) production has been hampered by tight sulfur supply, with actual output falling below initial expectations for the year, leading to a decline in the operating rates of hydrometallurgical plants. The proportion of recycled nickel is steadily increasing but is unlikely to provide sufficient incremental supply to fill the gap in primary nickel in the short term. Overall, the industry chain is transitioning from a state of broad surplus to a structurally tight balance, with tightness in nickel sulfate raw materials coexisting with high inventories of refined nickel.
Nickel Price Forecast for Today
Domestic nickel prices on June 23 are expected to remain volatile with a slightly stronger bias. Macroeconomic headwinds from a robust US dollar create upward pressure, while supply contraction dynamics at the industry level provide underlying support. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. The core trading range for spot nickel is anticipated to be between 134,000 and 136,000 yuan per tonne. Strategically, a long position on dips is suggested. Key factors to monitor include the implementation progress of Indonesian quotas and changes in downstream stainless steel production schedules.