短期欧元区利率预计将维持在由市场普遍预期的欧洲央行最终存款利率2.50%至2.75%所界定的区间内。桑坦德银行企业及投资银行部的安东尼奥·加西亚·帕斯夸尔在一份报告中指出,只要油价保持在欧洲央行温和及基准情景的假设范围内,预计该利率区间将得以维持。这位全球经济学主管表示,在当前水平下,桑坦德银行再次看到在短期利率上建立战术性多头头寸的机会。欧洲央行于六月将利率上调了25个基点,使存款利率达到2.25%。市场普遍预期,在本周四宣布货币政策决定时,欧洲央行将按兵不动。
富兰克林邓普顿的基本预测是,欧洲央行将在九月进行最后一次加息。其欧洲固定收益主管大卫·扎恩在一份报告中表示,预计通胀在未来几个季度仍将高于欧洲央行2%的目标水平。此后,欧洲央行预计将维持利率不变,以评估此前一系列紧缩政策已产生的影响。然而,扎恩强调,欧洲央行的决策仍高度依赖于数据。他指出,如果海湾地区紧张局势再度升级,推高能源价格并使通胀更长时间地高于目标,政策制定者可能将被迫考虑进一步加息。富兰克林邓普顿预计,欧洲央行将于2027年开始放宽政策。欧洲央行在六月加息25个基点后,预计本周将维持利率稳定。
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