Abstract

PulteGroup will report quarterly results on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, margins, and EPS alongside company guidance and recent analyst commentary since July 22, 2025.

Market Forecast

- For the current quarter, market projections point to revenue of $4.32 billion, an estimated year-over-year decline of 6.76%, with EBIT forecast at $0.72 billion and EPS of $2.82, implying year-over-year contraction. Forecast gross margin, net income or margin, and adjusted EPS year-over-year detail were not provided by the company in prior disclosures, though consensus implies margin normalization versus the last quarter. - PulteGroup’s main business remains homebuilding, and the near-term outlook centers on closing mix and cycle times, with financing capture supporting demand resilience relative to broader existing-home market softness. The most promising area continues to be U.S. homebuilding communities in growth markets where demand remains solid; revenue last quarter from homebuilding was $4.30 billion, down year-over-year as orders and cycle times normalized.

Last Quarter Review

- In the prior quarter, PulteGroup reported revenue of $4.40 billion, gross margin of 26.43%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.59 billion, net profit margin of 13.30%, and adjusted EPS of $2.96, with year-over-year growth of revenue at -1.60% and adjusted EPS at -11.64%. - A key highlight was disciplined pricing and cost control that sustained a 26.43% gross margin despite cost inflation and mix shifts. Main business performance was anchored by homebuilding revenue of $4.30 billion and financial services revenue of $0.10 billion, reflecting the dominance of core construction activities while mortgage capture contributed a smaller but supportive share.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Homebuilding revenue and margin trajectory

PulteGroup’s homebuilding operations are expected to generate the bulk of quarterly revenue, with consensus indicating approximately $4.32 billion in total company revenue and a year-over-year decline of 6.76%. Given the last quarter’s gross margin at 26.43%, investor focus is on whether materials deflation and build-cycle efficiencies can offset incentives and promotional activity. The company’s national footprint across entry-level, move-up, and active adult communities provides mix flexibility; recent trends show builders using financing incentives to sustain demand, which can pressure gross margins even as volumes hold. Net margin of 13.30% in the prior quarter offers a reference point for this quarter’s profitability, although EPS forecasts at $2.82 suggest lower operating leverage and an earnings step-down compared with the comparable period.

Most promising business: Community expansion and favorable submarket exposure

The most promising growth pocket lies in communities situated in migration destinations with employment growth and relative affordability. In the last quarter, homebuilding delivered $4.30 billion in revenue while financial services added $0.10 billion; growth over the coming periods will hinge on new community openings and the company’s capability to convert a healthy backlog into deliveries. Management’s balance between quick move-in inventory and build-to-order helps tailor offerings to buyers using rate buydowns. Where demand remains stable—often in Sun Belt markets and suburban submarkets—order trends have held up and could translate into sustained closings over the next few quarters. Even with a softer year-over-year comparison anticipated this quarter, the combination of cycle-time improvements and targeted incentives should support revenue resiliency in these areas.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Orders, incentives, and rate sensitivity

The stock’s short-term reaction will likely pivot on net new orders, cancellation rates, and the degree of incentives embedded in closings. If mortgage rates moderate from recent peaks, buyer traffic and absorption rates can improve, reducing the need for aggressive rate buydowns and supporting gross margins near the 26.43% benchmark from the last quarter. Conversely, if rates remain elevated or volatility returns, buyers may demand more concessions, pulling margins lower even if top-line revenue meets the $4.32 billion forecast. Additionally, the mix of entry-level versus move-up closings can influence price realization and margin composition, affecting EPS relative to the $2.82 forecast.

Analyst Opinions

Recent published views since July 22, 2025 show a majority neutral-to-positive stance. Among the highlighted opinions, Buy ratings from large institutions and brokers are evident alongside several Hold stances. Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy rating with a target price indicative of confidence in execution and margin durability. Bank of America also maintained a Buy, citing the company’s efficient land strategy and operating discipline. Evercore ISI maintained a Hold, while another major bank’s analyst kept a Hold reflecting balanced risk-reward amid macro uncertainty. The ratio of bullish versus bearish/neutral opinions trends in favor of bullish-to-neutral rather than outright bearish, and the majority view suggests that PulteGroup is positioned to navigate a mixed demand backdrop with steady returns on invested capital. Analysts emphasizing Buy ratings point to strong gross margins supported by cycle-time gains, disciplined incentives, and a robust community pipeline, while Hold ratings flag macro rate sensitivity and normalization of order growth. The consensus read-through for this print leans toward in-line revenue near $4.32 billion and EPS near $2.82 with attention on orders, cancellation rates, and commentary on pricing power heading into the spring selling season.