China's Economy Unveils Mid-Year Performance Report

Market Watcher
16 Jul

China's economic indicators for the first half of 2025 reveal sustained stability with positive momentum, as detailed in a State Council Information Office press conference. Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), emphasized the economy's steady operational foundation marked by consistent production-demand growth, resilient employment conditions, rising household incomes, and accelerated new growth drivers. Four core macroeconomic metrics underscore this stability: GDP expanded 5.3% year-on-year (up 0.3 percentage points from 2024), surveyed unemployment fluctuated within a narrow 5.0%-5.4% band, prices remained subdued yet stable, and foreign exchange reserves held firm above $3.2 trillion alongside record-high goods trade volumes.

International institutions' divergent outlooks—revising China's growth projections upward while forecasting global deceleration—signal robust external confidence in the economy's trajectory. Domestic demand emerged as the primary growth engine, with consumption contributing 52% to GDP expansion, dwarfing capital formation's 16.8% share and net exports' 31.2% input. Consumption stimulus policies, including ongoing subsidy rollouts and municipal incentives, are poised to reinforce this trend through the latter half.

Investment dynamics present structural improvements despite nominal slowdowns. Real fixed-asset investment growth held steady after price adjustments, while sectoral transitions gradually reduce traditional overcapacity. "Enormous untapped investment potential persists," Sheng noted, "particularly through galvanizing private capital participation."

Real estate markets inch toward stabilization, evidenced by narrowing declines in sales volumes (-4.5% YoY) and moderated price corrections, though regional variations persist. Enhanced funding channels signal progress, yet Sheng cautioned that market bottoming requires extended policy reinforcement.

Price trajectories are projected to rebound mildly in H2, supported by five pillars: sustained demand expansion, policy tailwinds, regulatory crackdowns on predatory pricing, holiday consumption effects, and diminishing carryover impacts for both CPI and PPI metrics.

Amid external headwinds, China prioritizes domestic circulation enhancement through twin strategies: aggressive fiscal stimulus for demand activation and trade-diversification efforts to mitigate single-market dependencies. These calibrated measures, Sheng affirmed, will amplify consumption, investment, and foreign trade outcomes to cement stable economic advancement.

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