江西铜业股份（00358）今日盘中大涨9.19%，引发市场关注。与此同时，多只铜业股也出现显著上涨，反映出投资者对铜业板块的积极情绪。
这波涨势主要受全球铜供应紧张局势推动。美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan旗下印尼Grasberg矿山（全球第二大铜矿）近日发生致命泥石流事故，导致生产暂停。Freeport预计最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平，2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。这一事件推动国际铜价大幅上涨，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价一度上涨3.2%，触及每吨10297.50美元，创下4月10日以来最大盘中涨幅。
展望未来，多重因素或将继续支撑铜价。一方面，全球能源转型和人工智能热潮推动对铜的需求不断攀升；另一方面，从南美洲到中非的铜矿接连遭遇事故和干扰，导致供应持续紧张。此外，市场预期美联储可能在9月议息会议后重启降息，宏观经济前景总体偏正面。中信期货维持对铜价的看涨观点，认为Grasberg铜矿停产影响较大，叠加频发的供应扰动，将为铜价提供支撑。
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