Kaiyuan Securities has issued a research report reiterating a "Buy" rating on Mobvista (01860). Based on the company's performance forecast and expectations for volume growth in its In-App Purchase (IAP) products, the firm has revised its net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts for 2025 and 2027 upwards, while lowering the 2026 estimate to $0.62 billion, $1.37 billion, and $2.37 billion respectively (previous values were $0.26 billion, $1.65 billion, and $2.25 billion). The current stock price implies price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 42.3x, 19.2x, and 11.1x for those years. The brokerage is optimistic about the contribution from product expansion to future earnings growth. Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Mobvista anticipates achieving revenues between $20.30 billion and $20.60 billion for 2025 (a year-on-year increase of 34.6% to 36.6%), with net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from $0.54 billion to $0.64 billion (a year-on-year surge of 243.9% to 307.6%). Adjusted net profit is forecast to be between $0.89 billion and $0.99 billion (a year-on-year increase of 80.5% to 100.8%). For the fourth quarter alone, the company expects revenue of $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion (up 23.7% to 30.3% year-on-year and 5.4% to 11.1% quarter-on-quarter). Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between $0.76 billion and $0.86 billion (turning profitable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter), while adjusted net profit is estimated at $0.27 billion to $0.37 billion (up 0.8% to 38.0% year-on-year and 12.2% to 53.6% quarter-on-quarter). Steady revenue growth is driven by the expanding mobile advertising market and the company's solid technological advantages underpinned by a data flywheel effect. Improved net profit margins are attributed to the release of scale effects. The significant increase in Q4 net profit was also partially benefited from a reduction in losses associated with derivative financial liabilities from convertible bonds. The company announced that a $30 million principal convertible bond and related interest, due December 23, 2025, have been converted into equity, which is expected to more clearly reflect the company's strong fundamentals in its financial statements.

According to the "Advertising Platform Performance Report – 2025 Edition," Mintegral maintained stable growth in both gaming and non-gaming sectors, continuing to narrow the gap with leading global platforms. On the iOS side, Mintegral ranked prominently in global volume charts for game sub-genres such as simulation, action, puzzle, and casual games, securing top-five positions in several categories. In non-gaming categories, Mintegral ranked fifth in both the strength and volume charts for e-commerce in Eastern Europe and sixth in the global volume chart for utility apps, breaking away from its perception as primarily a "gaming channel." On the Android side, Mintegral maintained a top-five global position in volume charts for core, highly active, and competitive game genres like simulation, sports & racing, and action. It also ranked fourth globally in the utility app volume chart and sixth in the lifestyle category, demonstrating diversified growth drivers.

The company is deepening its AI applications, which is expected to enhance service competitiveness and drive sustained performance growth. In the creative production phase, its Playturbo platform added support for AI dubbing, translation, and rapid image generation in March, followed by the launch of two major AI video features—"digital human video" and "image-to-video"—in August. For the ad delivery phase, the optimized HybridROAS bidding strategy model was launched in April to help developers target high-value users. The IAPROAS optimization strategy was officially launched in July, empowering IAP apps to expand overseas while improving quality and efficiency. The brokerage views the ongoing empowerment of AI on the advertising business positively, expecting it to boost service competitiveness and contribute to continuous earnings growth.

Potential risks include changes in advertising industry regulations, intensifying market competition, and slower-than-expected progress in AI application development.