The "steady and long-term" approach is facilitating the transition of the spring rally into its subsequent phase, yet it has not disrupted the established path of the rally's progression.
The spring rally, characterized by incremental博弈 and consecutive favorable windows for long positions, has the foundation to evolve into a perfect spring rally, corresponding to a complete diffusion of赚钱效应. In the short term,周期Alpha investing is spreading towards more cyclical inflection points. The挖掘 of bottom assets is deepening, and their stock prices also show short-term elasticity. However, it is important to note that the overall赚钱效应 is approaching high levels, and the subsequent time and space for the post-holiday rally are gradually becoming constrained.
The post-holiday rally has prematurely entered a sector rotation phase, but the established path of the spring rally's progression has not been disrupted. The established path of the spring rally consists of: incremental博弈 in spring (driven by the surge in CSI A500 ETFs before the New Year, and expectations of strong insurance sales after the New Year and the回流 of foreign capital as a basis; increased household allocation to equities + rising activity of trading capital + existing positions adding to holdings as marginal funds) + consecutive favorable windows for long positions (minimal market downside risks in January assuming economic downturn risks are排除, anticipation of Spring Festival科技catalysts in February, the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan during the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit to China by Trump in April). The market possesses the foundation for a perfect spring rally, with its core features being complete sector rotation and充分的 diffusion of赚钱效应. In the short term, industrial trend themes have experienced some adjustments, while the挖掘 of bottom assets is deepening.周期Alpha investing is spreading towards cyclical inflection points, and stock prices show short-term elasticity. The rebound in recently oversold industrial trend themes is also part of the挖掘 of bottom assets.
Reiterating the positioning of the spring rally within the larger wave: the essence of the spring rally remains an extension and expansion phase of the high-valuation科技structural行情 from 2025. Investment directions that have reached historically极高valuations are successively entering a phase of high volatility. After the spring rally concludes, a consolidation phase is highly probable. The core of this phase will be waiting for the next stage of industrial trend clues to become clear, waiting for earnings to digest valuations and alleviate矛盾 related to性价比 and筹码structure. There will be a new upward phase in the second half of 2026, with the core logic being the共振 of multiple positive factors: cyclical improvement in fundamentals + a new stage of科技industrial trends + migration of household asset allocation towards equities + the显性化提升 of China's influence.
In the short term,周期Alpha has become the focus of the market's挖掘 of low-position directions, but after the short-term industry赚钱效应 diffuses to high levels, resistance may increase significantly. Subsequent rotation directions include: 1. Sectors that were previously strong but have seen some contraction in赚钱效应 have rebound opportunities: commercial aerospace and AI applications rebounding, with space photovoltaics as a new momentum. 2.轮涨补涨 in directions where赚钱效应 is at relatively low levels:挖掘Alpha clues in the high-dividend direction, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and博弈 in brokerages. It is reiterated that the characteristics of a structural bull market and a comprehensive bull market share the same lineage. The directions看好 in the medium to long term remain景气科技 and周期Alpha.
In the short term, the market is集中挖掘 low-position directions.周期Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) is spreading towards cyclical inflection points (building materials, petroleum, steel), becoming the focus of the market's挖掘 of low-position directions. The共振效应 between the周期Alpha行情 and the expansion of industry ETF scales is significant, making it a strong momentum direction following the industrial trend themes.
However, it is important to note that the赚钱效应 for non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and petroleum has already neared high levels. Short-term resistance for the pro-cyclical行情 is gradually increasing.
In the medium to long-term outlook, it is re-emphasized that the style characteristics of the two upward phases share the same lineage: the strong structural行情 of 2025 was led by周期Alpha and AI computing power. In the second phase of the rise,周期Alpha will still have opportunities, and the extension of pro-cyclical investment might be the困境反转 of advanced manufacturing and outbound chains. The AI industry chain行情 may gradually transition towards the application end. Therefore,景气科技 and周期Alpha remain看好 in the medium to long term.景气科技 focuses on: overseas computing chains, AI applications (during the phase of industrial trend realization for AI applications, Hong Kong-listed internet stocks may重新 become leading sectors, and the characteristic of H-shares outperforming A-shares might also回归), semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, commercial aerospace, etc.周期Alpha focuses on: non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals.
Risk提示: Overseas economic recession exceeding expectations, domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations.