The memory market has experienced a rapid price surge since the beginning of 2026. According to a February Memory Price Tracker report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, memory prices have risen 80% to 90% since the first quarter of 2026 compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. Prices for all categories, including DRAM, NAND, and HBM, have reached record highs, with general-purpose server DRAM identified as the primary driver of this round of price increases.
Industry insiders indicate that as the supply-demand dynamics adjust, various segments of the industry chain are accelerating the optimization of their operational strategies. Meanwhile, domestic Chinese memory companies are expected to encounter opportunities for localization and development amid shifts in production capacity planning by major overseas manufacturers.
Prices across the entire memory sector are accelerating their ascent. The aforementioned Counterpoint Research report highlights that previously stable NAND flash memory prices have also surged by 80% to 90% since Q1 2026. Coupled with rising prices for some HBM3e products, this has created a broad-based price increase environment. For instance, the contract price for 64GB RDIMM server memory has skyrocketed from $450 in Q4 2025 to over $900 in Q1 2026, with expectations to surpass the $1,000 mark in the second quarter.
An analyst from TrendForce stated that DRAM contract prices for various applications saw a general increase of over 40% in Q4 2025, followed by another significant surge starting in Q1 2026. The supply-demand imbalance in the DDR4 market is particularly acute, with price acceleration intensifying in Q1 2026; further increases are anticipated for Q2.
The core reasons for this price surge are seen as a combination of supply-demand imbalance and capacity structure adjustments by major overseas manufacturers. The General Manager of Sigmaintell commented that the construction of AI computing centers has triggered a sharp increase in demand for servers and memory. The storage industry is currently in a state of undersupply, a situation expected to persist long-term as AI computing infrastructure is still in its early stages of development.
During investor communications, Dongxin Semiconductor noted that overseas memory giants like Samsung Electronics, Kioxia, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology are focusing on high-capacity 3D NAND Flash, along with premium products like HBM and DDR5. These companies are widely implementing production cuts or capacity control strategies. Their investment in and supply of traditional market segments—such as SLC NAND Flash, niche DRAM, and DDR4—are gradually decreasing, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the DDR4 market and driving continuous price increases.
Regarding future market trends, the Sigmaintell manager believes that after Q2 2026, the rate of memory price increases will gradually moderate each quarter. Price hikes for some product categories may halt in the second half of the year, but a price decline is unlikely to be seen in the short term.
The memory price surge is directly boosting profitability for upstream manufacturers. Some industry analysis suggests that DRAM manufacturers' operating profit margins are expected to exceed historical peaks in Q1 2026, achieving record profit levels for the industry.
Domestic Chinese companies are also benefiting from this industry upcycle. Netac Technology stated on an investor interaction platform on January 29 that the global storage industry is in an upward cycle. Driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and AI computing demand, DDR memory prices are rising across the industry. The company reported good capacity utilization and plans dynamic production optimization. Similarly, Dongxin Semiconductor mentioned on February 9 that demand for its memory products is gradually improving, and market prices have begun to recover.
In stark contrast to the high profitability upstream, downstream original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are facing dual operational pressures, with the consumer electronics sector being the most affected. Industry insiders believe overall storage prices will remain high throughout 2026, prompting brand manufacturers to adjust end-product pricing and product structures. To cope with cost pressures, downstream manufacturers are adopting strategies like specification downgrades, component substitutions, and structural adjustments. The TrendForce analyst indicated that some PC and smartphone brands are downgrading memory specifications and seeking alternative suppliers from module makers. Global shipments of PCs and smartphones are projected to potentially decline in 2026.
Notably, these industry shifts are creating development opportunities for domestic Chinese memory firms through localization. Dongxin Semiconductor stated in its investor communications that as major overseas manufacturers gradually exit traditional memory market segments, combined with rising domestic demand, the company's market share in related fields is expected to continue growing, presenting a favorable development opportunity.