Despite broader consumption pressures, the pet food industry continues to demonstrate robust growth resilience. According to data from Jiuqian, the combined gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the pet food sector across Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin is projected to reach RMB 30.71 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.2% (compared to 13.5% in 2024). Tmall holds over half of the market share, while Douyin exhibits the fastest growth rate. Notably, pet ownership practices in China are progressively entering an era of scientific feeding. Demand for specialized products tailored to specific pets—including stage-specific care throughout the pet's life cycle, breed-specific food, and formulas designed for different body sizes or coat lengths—alongside the functionalization of staple foods (targeting immunity enhancement, digestive health, coat care, and bone strength) and a shift in feeding structure towards higher wet food consumption, are set to drive consumption upgrades.
Key long-term perspectives are as follows: The influx of "new pet owners" remains secure, and average spending per pet shows resilient long-term growth, jointly driving industry expansion. Individuals aged 20-35 constitute the primary pet-owning demographic in China. With the number of new births in China peaking in 2016 and subsequently declining, the annual count of new graduates is expected to grow continuously from 2025 to 2038. Looking ahead 15-20 years, the number of new pet owners is still strongly supported. For reference, Japan's new birth population peaked in 1973, with the number of dogs and cats reaching a peak around 2004. During the 1990s, the compound annual growth rate of pet food prices in Japan significantly outpaced the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating long-term price resilience. Currently, the ratio of average pet spending to per capita disposable income in China remains notably lower than historical levels in Japan. Drawing parallels with the United States, spending per dog or cat typically grows faster than the CPI under normal circumstances, indicating that pet-related consumption retains its elasticity.
In the medium term, product innovation is leading consumption upgrades, with demand evolution poised to further propel the sector. The pet food industry is undergoing a consumption upgrade. In 2024-2025, the GMV growth rate for mid-to-high-priced cat and dog food (priced between RMB 60-100 per kilogram) has outpaced the industry average. On the product front, advancements in manufacturing processes and ingredient quality are fueling this upgrade. The evolution of staple pet food in the Chinese market reflects the competition and progress of domestic brands. Intensified competition, or "involution," within the pet industry manifests as manufacturers continuously innovating in production techniques and upgrading raw materials to offer superior products. The progression has been: extruded kibble (e.g., Royal Canin, which early on captured consumer mindshare) -> freeze-dried food (LiangNuo introduced China's first pet freeze-dried product in 2009, launching its own brand "LiangNuo" domestically in 2017) -> fresh-meat extruded kibble (e.g., Fulejiate launched a high fresh-meat, zero-meal powder kibble in 2020; Myfoodie introduced BARF natural food in 2021) -> baked food (e.g., Xianlang, a pioneer of fresh-meat baked food, launched the first domestic fresh-meat baked product in 2020; Fulejiate launched its first baked product in 2023; Leading Pet introduced its first low-temperature baked food in 2023) ->酥化粮 (crispy textured food). From the demand perspective, the adoption of scientific pet care concepts and the aging pet population will continue to drive consumption upgrades. As China moves towards scientific feeding, the demand for specialized, functional, and wetter diets will sustain this trend. Concurrently, China's pet population is at the initial stages of aging. According to the Pet Industry Blue Book, 23% of dogs and 12% of cats entered their senior years (7 years+) in 2024. Senior pets incur higher monthly costs and show a preference for more expensive categories like baked food. Pet owners demonstrate high demand for specialized senior pet food and prescription diets. As the rate of pet aging increases, pet consumption is expected to upgrade further.
In the short term, industry vitality persists, with leading enterprises expanding their advantage. Despite overall consumption headwinds, the pet food sector maintains strong growth resilience. Data from Jiuqian projects the combined online GMV for 2025 on Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin to be RMB 30.71 billion, up 10.2% year-on-year. Tmall's platform share exceeds half, while Douyin leads in growth speed. Tmall's GMV share reached 51.4% in 2025. According to Douyin E-commerce data, the pet industry's market size on Douyin surged 88% year-on-year in 2025. Industry concentration is accelerating, with a clear trend towards consolidation among top players. The online CR5, CR10, and CR20 for China's pet food market in 2025 were 25.3%, 38.3%, and 51.9% respectively, increasing by 3.4, 5.0, and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The combined GMV growth rate for the Top 10 brands online was 27% in 2025, compared to 8% for brands ranked 11-20, and 0% for brands 21-50 (with 16 brands experiencing negative growth), against an industry average of 10%. The landscape is reverting to a "two superpowers, many strong players" structure. The "two superpowers" remain relatively stable; Myfoodie and Royal Canin have consistently held the top two online positions for eight consecutive years from 2018 to 2025. The composition of the "domestic strong players" has seen turnover, with the peak cycle for dominant brands typically lasting around 3-4 years. From 2018-2021, prominent players included Bridge, Crazy Little Dog, and Care. From 2023-2025, key players are NetEase Yanxuan, Lanshi, Xianlang, Truth Bite, and Fulejiate.
Future industry outlook suggests the consumption upgrade trend will persist. Since 2025, growth in the mid-to-high and high-end price segments continues to significantly outpace the industry average, while the low-end segment has seen negative growth. The market share of leading foreign brands is expected to continue rising. Brands under Mars, such as Royal Canin, Orijen, and Acana, showed significant growth, contributing to a slight increase in the overall market share of foreign brands in 2025, reversing the previous trend. From 2021 to 2024, the share of foreign brands generally declined before experiencing a minor rebound in 2025. Among the Top 50 brands by online GMV in 2025, domestic brands held a 49.4% market share, while foreign brands accounted for 19.4%. Going forward, as consumer brand awareness increases and the dog and cat population ages, Royal Canin's early strategic focus on prescription diets is expected to gain further consumer recognition, potentially leading to sustained market share growth.
Product development is entering a phase of micro-innovations, accompanied by rising brand consciousness. Leading brands are reinforcing their market positioning to deepen brand impression and strengthen brand associations. Brand concepts such as "respecting natural instincts," "precise feeding," "fresh/fresh meat," and "safe and secure" are likely to set industry trends. Functional and prescription diets may emerge as a new industry trend. As products become more similar and competition intensifies, innovation is key to differentiation, with functional/prescription diets potentially representing the next growth opportunity. In 2026, Myfoodie plans to launch senior food for dogs aged 7+ across three dog series, with dog functional food focusing on reducing internal heat and digestive health, and cat functional food emphasizing coat beauty and digestive care. Industry consolidation is increasing, with small and medium-sized brands seeking viable paths forward. Amid fierce competition, some smaller brands face financial and operational pressures, while leading companies are enhancing their industry chain布局 through mergers and acquisitions.
The investment perspective is positive regarding continued brand concentration and the sustained trend towards product premiumization within the pet food industry. Leading enterprises, benefiting from comprehensive brand and product portfolios, are likely to outperform the industry in growth while maintaining improving profitability. Recommendations include Guaibao Pet (301498.SZ), Zhong Chong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ), and Pet's Pet (300673.SZ). Risks include fluctuations in raw material prices, currency exchange rate volatility, and potential underperformance in the brand development efforts of domestic pet food companies.