Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd. has stated that following the Venezuela incident earlier this year, the joint U.S.-Israel military action against Iran on February 28 marks the materialization of a second "black swan" event: Middle East risk. In a Q&A session from a conference call held on February 28 regarding the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, analyst Wang Han from Industrial Securities reiterated the firm's previous judgment that "bull markets often have sharp corrections." The session advised investors to closely monitor U.S. Treasuries, precious metals, and foreign exchange markets. A key signal would be accelerating gold prices coupled with a turn from rising to falling prices for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, alongside a beginning of appreciation in the Renminbi exchange rate. This combination would indicate the market's assessment that Iran can withstand the first wave of attacks from the U.S. and Israel.

The content of the conference call is as follows:

Q1: What is the nature of this U.S.-Iran conflict, and why did the U.S. choose to act now? A: The conflict is essentially a strategic gamble by the U.S. to reverse its strategic dilemmas in areas such as supply chains, industry, and tariffs. The U.S. decision to act now is based on three main factors: First, proactive pushing by Israel, which seeks U.S. assistance to resolve the Iran issue; Second, potential damage to the U.S.-Israel intelligence network in Iran during the unrest earlier this year, prompting direct intervention; Third, domestic political pressures facing the U.S. administration, creating an urgent need for a quick victory to boost support rates and improve the outlook for midterm elections.

Q2: What are the respective strategic objectives of the U.S., Israel, and Iran? A: Israel's core objective is to overthrow the current Iranian regime and completely neutralize the security threat Iran poses. The U.S. objective is more complex: it requires not only regime change in Iran but also a swift and decisive victory to stabilize domestic political support, deter strategic allies, and slow the process of U.S. global hegemony's decline. Iran's strategic bottom line is regime survival. As long as the current regime remains, if Iran can draw the U.S. into a protracted conflict in the Middle East, its geopolitical value would increase, potentially garnering more support from other major powers.

Q3: What geopolitical chain reactions would occur if the current Iranian regime is overthrown? A: First, a reorganization of the Middle East格局, where Sunni forces would be compelled to compromise with Israel and the U.S., and Turkey's foreign policy stance might align more closely with the West. Second, impacts in South Asia, with key nodes of the "Belt and Road" initiative being severed, leaving Pakistan facing potential conflicts on both eastern and western fronts. Third, a shift in great power rivalry, increasing geopolitical pressure on Russia's southern flank, opening a pathway for U.S. entry into Central Asia, and potentially leading to the gradual formation of a global resource alliance structure.

Q4: What regional联动 risks might this conflict trigger? A: Focus is primarily on联动 risks in three directions: First, a high probability of short-term escalation in the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, with Ukraine potentially increasing offensives to contain Russia. Second, a significant rise in the likelihood of India undertaking strategic冒险 in South Asia, potentially threatening Pakistan's security. Third, an accelerated risk of Japanese militarism leveraging the situation for a resurgence, with the U.S. potentially further loosening constraints on Japan.

Q5: What impact will this conflict have on the A-share market? A: The previous judgment of "sharp corrections in a bull market" is maintained. 1) Short-term, the market will face冲击, mainly for three reasons: First, the market underestimates Iran's importance in Eurasian strategic games; Second, rising concerns about the U.S. building a global resource monopoly alliance; Third, expectations of rising resource prices could impact the manufacturing sector. 2) The foundation for a medium-term bull market remains unchanged. First, China possesses the world's largest industrial system, which is the core strategic asset. Second, if Iran successfully withstands the first wave of attacks, market judgment regarding major power competition could undergo a systematic reversal, leading to significant price changes in assets like U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and gold. Third, historical patterns over the past 300 years since the Industrial Revolution show that the world's largest industrial nation consistently remains the most stable entity within an economy during geopolitical competition.

Q6: Apart from this, what other key signals should be watched in financial markets? A: It is advised to closely monitor U.S. Treasuries, precious metals, and foreign exchange markets. When gold prices accelerate upward, while the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury prices turn from rising to falling, and the Renminbi exchange rate begins to appreciate, it signals the market's judgment that Iran can withstand the first wave of U.S.-Israel attacks.

Q7: From a strategic perspective, what are the long-term implications of this conflict for the U.S.? A: This is a tactical gamble for the U.S. If successful, the U.S. would reap substantial rewards, significantly delaying the decline of its global hegemony. However, if Iran withstands the first wave, the U.S. could face severe consequences, essentially "losing its principal," becoming mired in a protracted Middle East conflict and exacerbating its strategic被动 position. Regardless, the fact that the former global hegemon relies on such tactical冒险 to solve internal and external problems indicates that the process of major global transformation has already reached the "mid-game" stage.

Risk提示: Uncertainty in domestic and international economic policies, geopolitical risks, global economic and financial risks.