The U.S. Treasury Department has announced it will at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback program for long-dated government bonds, raising the scale from $2 billion to $4 billion, with the repurchase scope covering maturities ranging from 10-year to 30-year notes. Following this announcement, yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries declined notably. This comes after a period of sustained upward pressure on long-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.31% on August 17, marking its highest level since June 2007.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated on August 19 that he might resume negotiations with Iran at "some point," but insisted that Tehran must completely abandon its nuclear weapons program. This statement followed Trump's social media remarks on August 18, where he declared that no talks or dialogue with Iran would take place currently or in the future. In response, Rezaei, a member of Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, warned that if Iranian interests are harmed anywhere in the world, Iran would retaliate against hostile countries and governments in the Strait of Hormuz by raising tariffs or seizing assets.

Regarding futures market activity and trading volumes, on 2026-08-19, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 956.56 yuan/gram and closed at 945.56 yuan/gram, down 1.13% from the previous trading day's close. Daily trading volume reached 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. During the overnight session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 965.00 yuan/gram and closed at 969.50 yuan/gram, up 2.53% from the afternoon close of the previous day. For silver, the main Shanghai silver futures contract on 2026-08-19 opened at 15,925.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,432.00 yuan/kg, down 3.31% from the prior session's close. Daily trading volume stood at 685,304 lots, with open interest of 301,327 lots. In overnight trading, the main silver contract opened at 15,850 yuan/kg and closed at 16,027 yuan/kg, rising 3.86% from the prior afternoon's settlement.

In terms of Treasury yield and spread monitoring, as of 2026-08-19, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.71%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day, while the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields stood at 0.52%, also down 0.01% from the prior session.

Examining position and volume changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for the Au2610 contract on 2026-08-19, long positions changed by +3 lots compared with the previous day, while short positions changed by -3 lots. Total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts in the last session reached 358,272 lots, up 20.61% from the prior trading day. For silver, on the Ag2610 contract, long positions changed by -44 lots while short positions changed by +2 lots. Total trading volume for silver contracts in the last session was 1,074,200 lots, up 5.48% from the previous day.

Tracking precious metals ETF holdings, gold ETF holdings rose to 1,034.65 tonnes yesterday, an increase of 9.41 tonnes from the prior trading day. Meanwhile, silver ETF holdings declined to 15,275.59 tonnes, down 67.46 tonnes from the previous session.

In arbitrage monitoring, the domestic premium for gold stood at 4.33 yuan/gram on 2026-08-19, while the domestic premium for silver was 369.15 yuan/kg. The gold-to-silver price ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 61.27, changing by 2.26% from the previous trading day, while the offshore gold-to-silver ratio was 67.42, up 0.68% from the prior session.

Reviewing fundamental market data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+D market, gold trading volume on the last trading day (2026-08-19) reached 36,940 kg, up 27.41% from the previous trading day. Silver trading volume was 313,372 kg, down 4.08% from the prior session. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, while silver delivery volume reached 4,830 kg.

Gold Strategy: Cautiously Bullish

The Federal Reserve's signal of liquidity easing has led to a notable decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and combined with signs of easing geopolitical tensions, market risk appetite is improving. This could strengthen demand for gold investments, suggesting that gold prices are likely to maintain a pattern of volatile strength in the near term. The expected trading range for the Au2610 contract is between 950 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram.

Silver Strategy: Cautiously Bullish

Silver follows a similar logic to gold at present, with prices expected to maintain a volatile but firm pattern. The projected trading range for the Ag2610 contract is between 15,600 yuan/kg and 17,100 yuan/kg.

Arbitrage: Stand Aside

Options: Stand Aside

Risks to monitor include overseas liquidity risks and the continued exit of speculative positions from the market.