2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)今日盘前大幅下挫5.16%，其走势与现货白银价格紧密相关，反映了贵金属市场面临的显著压力。
消息面上，地缘政治局势再度紧张成为直接导火索。据媒体报道，美国政府打算近日宣布组建霍尔木兹海峡“护航联盟”，美伊冲突持续且双方均拒绝停火谈判。此类消息加剧了市场对能源价格飙升可能重新推高通胀的担忧，而白银的工业属性使其对经济增长前景更为敏感，地缘风险反而可能抑制其工业需求，从而对价格形成压制。
更深层次的原因在于宏观经济预期的转变。国际原油价格因地缘冲突持续冲高，直接重燃了全球通胀担忧。市场开始重新定价美联储的货币政策路径，降息预期明显削弱。交易员对美联储今年降息的次数和幅度预测都变得更为谨慎。同时，美元指数走强，自去年11月以来首次重回100大关，这对以美元计价的贵金属构成了直接压力。此外，美联储即将召开的FOMC会议也令市场保持警惕，任何偏鹰派的信号或对利率路径预测的上修都可能进一步施压金银价格。
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