Abstract

Ball Corp. will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 03, 2026 Pre-Market. The preview consolidates consensus forecasts and prior-quarter actuals to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS, while mapping segment-level demand dynamics and institutional commentary between July 27, 2025 and January 27, 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to Ball Corp.’s current quarter revenue at USD 3.11 billion, up 6.74% year over year, with EBIT at USD 369.04 million, an estimated YoY increase of 0.95%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.89, an estimated YoY increase of 11.57%; the company’s implied margin mix suggests a stable gross profit margin and a modest improvement in net profitability versus last year. The main business is expected to benefit from steady beverage can demand and pricing discipline, while near-term growth looks most promising in North America and Central America beverage packaging, with revenue focus around USD 1.64 billion and favorable YoY trends.

Last Quarter Review

Ball Corp. delivered prior-quarter revenue of USD 3.38 billion, a gross profit margin of 20.07%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 0.32 billion with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51.42%, a net profit margin of 9.50%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.02, up 12.09% year over year. A notable highlight was EBIT of USD 434.00 million, exceeding estimates by USD 8.28 million, indicating operational resilience amid volume normalization and disciplined cost control. By segment, North America and Central America beverage packaging generated USD 1.64 billion, Europe metal beverage packaging USD 1.06 billion, and South America beverage packaging USD 0.51 billion; the segment mix underscores the revenue concentration in hemispheric beverage packaging with stable YoY momentum.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Beverage Packaging Franchise and Margin Trajectory

Ball Corp.’s core beverage packaging operations remain the principal revenue driver, with the quarter’s forecast embedding continued volume stabilization and pricing support across cans. The estimate for revenue at USD 3.11 billion and EBIT at USD 369.04 million implies disciplined conversion of gross margin to operating income, consistent with last quarter’s 20.07% gross margin and a 9.50% net margin baseline. Demand in carbonated soft drinks, energy beverages, and beer is set to support throughput, while mix shifts toward specialty cans contribute to price realization. Operational execution—procurement efficiency, manufacturing yield improvements, and footprint optimization—should underpin margins, even if input costs such as aluminum exhibit periodic volatility. Given the pre-announced cadence in industry volumes, the near-term swing factor will be promotional activity by beverage customers and inventory normalization in the distribution channel, which can affect shipments but tends to favor stable quarterly revenue conversion.

Most Promising Business: North America and Central America Beverage Packaging

North America and Central America beverage packaging is positioned as the most promising segment in the current period, centered on last quarter’s USD 1.64 billion run-rate and supported by resilient demand across energy drinks and sparkling waters. This region benefits from higher penetration of aluminum cans in categories shifting away from single-use plastics, which sustains order books for specialty formats. Forecasted adjusted EPS of USD 0.89, up 11.57% year over year, implies that the region’s operating leverage is likely to contribute measurably to consolidated profitability, especially if fill rates and line utilization remain high. The segment’s near-term sensitivity resides in promotional calendars of large beverage customers and aluminum input cost pass-through, yet Ball Corp.’s contracted pricing and hedging practices help temper profit variability. The balance of volume momentum and margin discipline in this region forms the backbone of the constructive view on quarterly performance.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Earnings Quality, Margin Mix, and Guidance

The market’s focus will center on earnings quality indicators—free cash conversion, EBIT versus consensus, and adjusted EPS compared with the USD 0.89 estimate. Margin mix, especially gross profit margin stability relative to the prior quarter’s 20.07%, will be parsed for signs of improved manufacturing efficiency and input cost containment, which can catalyze an expansion in net profit margin beyond the last quarter’s 9.50%. Guidance for fiscal year trends—volume outlook by region and pricing—will be pivotal for investor sentiment, particularly any quantified commentary around North America and Central America demand and Europe’s metal beverage packaging recovery trajectory. A beat on revenue with in-line margins may still support shares if management’s tone and guidance for the next fiscal periods signal visible growth drivers and cost control. Conversely, softness in segment volumes or an adverse mix shift could weigh on the stock if it raises questions about the sustainability of EPS growth.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional views over the past six months skew constructive, with the majority expressing a cautiously positive stance on Ball Corp.’s near-term earnings trajectory relative to beverage-can demand normalization and margin resiliency. Analysts highlight adjusted EPS visibility at USD 0.89, up 11.57% year over year, and revenue expectations of USD 3.11 billion, up 6.74% year over year, as achievable under current operating assumptions. Commentary points to the North America and Central America segment as the anchor for incremental operating leverage, citing stable customer order patterns and a favorable product mix, while Europe is seen progressing through a gradual demand improvement path. In this majority view, the key validation point will be EBIT delivery in line with USD 369.04 million and management guidance that supports mid-single-digit revenue growth with balanced margin expansion across the franchise. The constructive stance hinges on disciplined cost execution and the ability to absorb input cost variability without materially diluting gross margin, maintaining a credible runway for adjusted EPS growth through seasonally softer quarters.