On Wednesday, reports indicated that the United States and Israel may launch a joint military strike against Iran. The White House stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have made progress, but significant differences remain on key issues. WTI crude oil surged by 5% intraday, reaching $65.38 per barrel.

According to reports, U.S. officials indicated on the 18th that there are currently no signs of a breakthrough in diplomatic talks with Iran. At the same time, increasing evidence suggests that military action against Iran is "imminent."

Sources revealed that if the U.S. initiates military action against Iran, it would likely be a large-scale operation lasting several weeks. The United States and Israel are expected to conduct a joint operation, which would be significantly larger than the "12-Day War" in June of last year, posing a more "existential threat" to Iran and having profound implications for the entire region.

Analysts noted that although both sides described the talks held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 17th as having "made progress," substantial disagreements persist. Currently, the likelihood of an agreement being reached appears low. Additionally, U.S. President Trump continues to escalate military and rhetorical pressure, making it difficult for him to back down without significant concessions from Iran. Trump's advisors also believe that the substantial military deployments in the Middle East are not a "bluff."

The U.S. has already deployed one aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, with a second group being deployed. Reports indicate that the U.S. military has also stationed over a dozen other warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems in the region. More than 150 military transport flights have been used to deliver weapons and ammunition to the Middle East.

**White House: Progress in U.S.-Iran Talks, but Wide Gaps Remain on Key Issues**

On February 18, the White House press secretary stated regarding the Iran issue that U.S.-Iran negotiations have "made some progress," but the two sides remain "far apart" on key issues. Iran is expected to submit a more specific proposal in the coming weeks, and President Trump will continue to assess the progress of the talks.

The White House declined to specify whether a deadline for negotiations has been set or if military options are being considered. The press secretary emphasized that President Trump remains in close communication with his national security team and that any decisions involving military action will prioritize U.S. national interests and the safety of military personnel.

**Israeli Official: Timeline for U.S. Military Strike Against Iran "Shortening"**

According to Israeli sources on the 17th, Israel believes that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a "critical stage." Due to "clear differences" between the U.S. and Iran, Israel is preparing for the possibility that "talks between the U.S. and Iran will collapse."

On the 18th, a senior Israeli official stated that the timeline for a U.S. military strike against Iran is "shortening." Because the latest round of talks yielded no substantive progress, Israeli assessments indicate that President Trump is highly likely to approve an attack plan in the near future.

The senior Israeli official confirmed that if the U.S. launches an attack, Israel will join the military action against Iran. Although the operations may not be perfectly synchronized, military coordination between the two countries is currently at a very high level.

The Israeli Defense Forces and security agencies have already elevated their alert levels nationwide. The Israeli Home Front Command and other emergency agencies have been explicitly instructed to "prepare for war." Israeli assessments suggest that if a large-scale U.S.-Israel attack occurs, Iran is highly likely to retaliate against Israeli territory using long-range missiles.

Reports indicate that intensive consultations are underway at all levels in Israel. A scheduled meeting of the Israeli security cabinet on the 19th has been urgently postponed to Sunday, the 22nd, a move seen as a tactical adjustment in response to the evolving situation.

Two Israeli sources stated that due to signs suggesting a potential joint strike against Iran in the coming days, Israel has raised its national alert level and is accelerating military preparations.

A military source revealed that despite announcements of progress in the second round of U.S.-Iran talks, Israel has been skeptical of the negotiations for weeks and has continuously accelerated its operational plans and defensive deployments.

Sources added that if President Trump authorizes action, the potential military operation would be larger in scale than the "12-Day War" in June 2025, with the U.S. and Israel conducting coordinated strikes. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has chaired multiple special security meetings this week to assess the readiness of the Israeli military and the coordination capabilities between the U.S. and Israel.

Israeli reports on the 18th indicated that, based on their assessment, because Iran has not accepted U.S. demands in the negotiations, President Trump is inclined to launch a large-scale military strike against Iran.

**Iranian Foreign Minister Discusses Latest Developments in Iran-U.S. Talks with IAEA Director General**

Earlier on the same day, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Iranian Foreign Minister held a telephone conversation to discuss the latest developments from the new round of Iran-U.S. talks held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 17th.

The Iranian Foreign Minister emphasized that Iran's focus is on drafting a preliminary framework to advance future dialogue.

The IAEA Director General gave a positive assessment of the talks and stated that the IAEA is willing to provide support during the process of forming a negotiation framework.

The two sides also exchanged views on the mechanisms and requirements for drafting the negotiation framework.

The second round of indirect talks between the United States and Iran took place on the 17th in Geneva, Switzerland, at the diplomatic mission of Oman.

**Russian and Iranian Navies Conduct Drills in Gulf of Oman**

According to reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on the 18th that the Russian frigate "Stoikiy" conducted exercises with the Iranian Navy in the Gulf of Oman aimed at ensuring the safety of civilian shipping. Russian naval personnel replenished fuel, water, and food supplies at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

The Russian Defense Ministry had previously announced on the 17th that the Baltic Fleet frigate "Stoikiy" began an unofficial visit to Bandar Abbas on February 14. Following the visit, it participated in the "Passex" naval exercise with Iranian naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman.

It was reported that after departing the port, naval personnel from both countries practiced coordinated maneuvers and conducted training on communications and safeguarding civilian shipping. Command of the operations was alternated between Russian and Iranian sides. The primary objective of the "Passex" exercise is to enhance naval cooperation between Russia and Iran.