As the final trading week of January 2026 arrives, market focus is expected to shift from geopolitical crises back to macroeconomic conditions, fiscal and monetary policies, and corporate earnings disclosures. The most significant events of this "super week" include the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and the suspense surrounding its rhetoric on 2026 rate cut prospects, alongside a rare, concentrated earnings disclosure period jointly led by US tech giants like Tesla and Apple, and global memory industry leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Other major financial market events include the potential announcement of the next Fed Chair, a possible hearing and committee vote on the US cryptocurrency regulatory framework (the CLARITY Act) by the Senate Agriculture Committee on January 27, potential coordinated US-Japan intervention in the currency market, and the risk of another US government shutdown.
While global investors continue to digest the latest wave of negative geopolitical news centered on the "Greenland territorial dispute" and navigate an exceptionally turbulent early-2026 trading environment, the US stock market has registered its second consecutive weekly decline. The S&P 500 index edged up less than 0.1% last Friday but fell 0.4% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7% weekly. Despite a 0.3% gain on Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also ended the week in negative territory, down approximately 0.1% (with a weekly decline of 0.06%, outperforming the Dow and S&P 500), primarily driven by continued strong gains in the memory chip, semiconductor, and data center power sectors, fueled by the ongoing massive AI computing infrastructure build-out.
A breakthrough in price action occurred in the nearly forgotten commodity market of US natural gas futures. Winter Storm "Fern" brought Arctic-level cold and heavy snow to regions inhabited by over 1.5 million people in the US, catapulting natural gas futures prices by a staggering 75% over the five trading days last week.
The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, commenced last week, gathering world leaders and business elites. While US President Trump and certain European leaders reached a "framework" agreement concerning Greenland, the forum revealed a deepening rift between the US and some of its major Western allies. Domestic confrontation in the US is equally intense, occurring during a period of sharp Democrat-Republican partisan division, with ICE even potentially triggering a government shutdown crisis.
Thierry Wizman, Global FX and Rates Strategist at Macquarie, stated, "Although the US-NATO 'initial agreement' on Greenland resolves major immediate issues related to tariffs and/or military invasion, it does not fundamentally address the core problem of the US's growing estrangement from its European allies." Wizman wrote in a client report released Wednesday. "It is against this backdrop that we can still discuss a more fragmented and dangerous geopolitical world, where US assets are less favored by investors, the US dollar may gradually lose its exclusive global status as the reserve currency, and the US focuses on the Western Hemisphere as its sole defensible fortress and sanctuary."
Despite President Trump seemingly abandoning threats of tariffs and military invasion regarding Greenland, and the EU pausing retaliatory trade measures, investors are still showing a desire to seek safe-haven assets beyond the US dollar. Last week, silver unprecedentedly entered the "triple-digit" era, with spot silver surging 7% on Friday to historically break through the $100 per ounce mark for the first time. Spot gold rose 1% last week, accumulating a weekly gain of over 8%, its largest in nearly six years. On Monday, spot gold had already breached the epic $5,000 level. Furthermore, the US dollar fell over 2.7% against the Swiss franc, a long-standing safe-haven currency, indicating traders are actively hedging against systemic uncertainties of the Trump era. The USD/JPY also fell about 1.8%, primarily driven by a surge in the yen on Friday catalyzed by news dynamics suggesting potential joint US-Japan government intervention to support the long-slumping Japanese currency.
The upcoming trading week of January 26-30 is destined to be one of the busiest of 2026. The Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting occurs on Wednesday EST, coinciding with a deluge of earnings reports from tech companies crucial to global bullish sentiment. This includes four of the US market's "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, alongside industry leaders like lithography giant ASML, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, and global memory product leaders. It is particularly rare for such a concentrated earnings period for memory giants, crucial to the current bull market trend, to coincide with high-weighted US mega-cap earnings during the reporting season.
Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta Platforms (META.US) (Facebook's parent), Tesla (TSLA.US), and Apple (AAPL.US) are all scheduled to report their fourth calendar quarter earnings this week—the first three after market close on Wednesday EST, and Apple on Thursday EST. Investor focus will likely center on the latest AI-related expenditure trajectories and the progress and future outlook for revenue generation/monetization linked to revolutionary AI technologies. Overall, approximately one-fifth of S&P 500 component companies will report quarterly earnings this week.
From an earnings expectation and market weight perspective, some Wall Street analysts believe the technology sector (especially the Mag 7) will remain the "core force" driving US stock market profit growth and bull market performance in 2026, with expectations far exceeding those for the remaining 493 index components, amplifying their influence on index movements. Despite increasing market rotation, from an earnings expectation standpoint, this rotation may not last long. The themes surrounding the unprecedented AI computing infrastructure build-out and the Mag 7's AI investments are expected to remain the stock market's strongest narrative throughout 2026, much like in 2024 and 2025.
The so-called "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7)—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Tesla, NVIDIA, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms—which hold substantial weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices (approximately 35%), have been the core drivers of the S&P 500's record highs. They are viewed by top Wall Street investment firms as the combination best positioned to deliver massive returns to investors amid the largest technological transformation since the internet era. Across the entire US market, the high-weighted Mag 7 have been the primary force leading and driving the long-term bull market since 2023, attracting global capital inflows with their AI-driven robust revenues, solid fundamentals, strong historical free cash flow reserves, and expanding share buyback programs.
As a new US earnings season begins, there is no doubt that the Mag 7 reporting this week, alongside lithography giant ASML, and the three storage leaders pivotal to the AI computing产业链—SanDisk, Western Digital (WDC.US), and Seagate Technology (STX.US)—are crucial for global equity profit trends and the continuation of the bull market.
Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, investors are almost certain that Fed officials will maintain the current 3.5%-3.75% interest rate range. As of last Friday, statistics from the CME's "FedWatch Tool" indicated a 98% probability priced by rate futures traders that the Fed will hold rates steady on Wednesday. Beyond the rate decision, investors are more focused on Chair Powell's outlook on future inflation, the US labor market, and the rate path during the press conference. Some analysts worry that Powell, facing potential criminal charges from the Justice Department, may not be able to attend the conference smoothly.
For investors monitoring Fed policy dynamics, the most important news might be President Trump's nomination for the next Fed Chair as Powell's term nears its end in May. According to paid prediction market Polymarket odds as of Saturday, Rick Rieder, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, has rapidly emerged as the frontrunner for the nomination. Treasury Secretary Besant, leading the months-long selection process, indicated Trump could announce his final decision as early as this week.
The Senate Agriculture Committee may hold a hearing and committee vote on the US cryptocurrency regulatory framework (CLARITY Act) on January 27, potentially moving it to a floor vote thereafter. Previously, a hearing/vote on another version of a crypto regulatory bill by the Senate Banking Committee was postponed indefinitely after the Coinbase CEO withdrew support for the latest version. Thus, the Agriculture Committee's January 27 review becomes a key node in recent cryptocurrency legislative progress. For the CLARITY Act to become law, it must pass separately in the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, be reconciled, return for a full Senate vote, and then be aligned with a House version before presidential signing—a process grown more complex and uncertain amid an election year and heightened regulatory debate.
The "AI bull market narrative" finally reaches its most critical validation point. To fund massive AI investments, US tech giants are now issuing debt on such a scale that it is altering the landscape of the investment-grade credit market, wrote Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Apollo, in a report Friday. Sløk noted the global tech sector issued nearly $700 billion in investment-grade debt last quarter, approaching the $800 billion issued by the financial sector, which has long dominated credit markets. While mentions of an "AI bubble" are declining, investors recently had to consider the risks of unlimited spending and sky-high valuations, wrote Bank of America senior strategists Haim Israel and Menka Bajaj in a recent client report. "AI is a profound revolution destined to change everything, but we cannot ignore valuation controversies and investment timing issues," they wrote.
For tech giants preparing to share their first major AI-related spending forecasts for 2026, the core question for the 2026 AI investment theme will be: Can these enormous expenditures translate into actual productivity growth and real-world transformative impact, or will they ultimately become "hollow hype," as the Bank of America strategists suggested? Approximately one-fifth of S&P 500 companies report quarterly earnings this week, including four core members of the high-weighted US "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla). Global storage product super-giants also report concentratedly this week—the three US storage tech leaders SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and South Korea-based global memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also set to release heavyweight earnings.
For the US stock market, which has repeatedly hit record highs and entered a new long-term bull trajectory, and the MSCI global equity benchmark, the increasingly fervent "AI faith" surrounding the "artificial intelligence investment theme" has served as the core and most powerful bullish driver in recent years. Arguably, as long as this "AI faith" wave remains fervent and continues sweeping global equity markets, the US and global stock bull markets will continue their exceptionally strong upward curves. The S&P 500's cumulative gain of approximately $30 trillion over the past three years in a "super bull market" has been largely driven by the world's largest tech giants (the Mag 7) and significantly bolstered by chip companies greatly benefiting from massive global AI computing infrastructure investments (e.g., Micron, TSMC, Broadcom), the storage trio (SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate), and power system suppliers (e.g., Constellation Energy).
The massive global flow of AI-related funds, dominated by "AI faith," concentrates on two primary investment themes: AI computing infrastructure construction and AI application revenue trajectories. This very "AI faith" faces a "super test" this week, the overall results of which could have an unprecedented impact on the bull market trends of US and global stocks. This super test revolves around the concentrated earnings and outlook disclosures from four Mag 7 tech giants and global storage leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix. It represents a major examination for the AI computing narrative and AI application prospects represented by the "Magnificent Seven," as well as a critical test of whether the狂热浪潮 in AI computing infrastructure construction, led by HBM/enterprise data center DDR series/enterprise high-performance SSD series from global storage chip and product leaders, "remains in full swing."
Currently, the market prioritizes robust demand for AI computing infrastructure from enterprises or government agencies and the actual revenue, operating profit growth, margin improvement, and return on investment (ROI) driven by revolutionary AI technology over grand, presentation-style AI application prospects. These are the core metrics for this week's earnings from major tech and storage semiconductor giants. The latest results from Tesla (TSLA.US), the global EV leader and a long-time favorite mega-cap tech stock among retail investors, will crucially inform global investors about the current and future revenue trajectory of its cutting-edge AI technology FSD full self-driving software subscription products and the CyberCab fully autonomous taxi product line—specifically, the realized revenue or future outlook for FSD software subscriptions based on AI supercomputing systems and the Robotaxi business, which is pivotal for market predictions regarding the global AI computing bull narrative and the trend of widespread AI application penetration.
The three cloud computing leaders—Amazon.com, Microsoft, and Alphabet (Google)—are fully focused on building developer ecosystems for generative AI-related B2B and B2C application software, aiming to lower the technical barriers for non-IT professionals across industries to develop AI applications and provide powerful cloud AI computing platforms, especially cloud AI inference resources. Therefore, the market's core focus for Microsoft's (MSFT.US) upcoming earnings lies in whether revenue and profit growth from Microsoft Azure's "AI+cloud service platform" and "Copilot+AI" can drive overall cloud performance above expectations, the contribution percentage of all AI-related revenue, and whether the tech giant can maintain profitability and margins amid increasing AI CapEx. Microsoft reports its Q2 fiscal results after the market close on January 28. Wall Street analysts generally expect the cloud and AI leader to report Q2 EPS of approximately $3.92—implying potential year-over-year growth of 34%—and total revenue of about $80.28 billion, suggesting potential YoY growth of 30%. A recent BNP Paribas research report indicated that even as the AI application wave continues globally, super cloud giants like Microsoft and Alphabet are expected to continue dominating the software market in AI applications. BNP Paribas analysts reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Microsoft stock, maintaining a target price of $632. As of last Friday's close, Microsoft stock settled at $465.90.
For Meta Platforms, the market similarly focuses on the AI monetization trajectory and forward guidance for AI applications, closely watching whether Meta further integrates generative AI technology into ad targeting, content recommendation, and user interaction on platforms like Facebook to enhance overall digital ad revenue or operating profit. The market will also monitor whether Meta can sustain revenue and profit growth exceeding expectations against the backdrop of significantly increased AI CapEx (Meta's capital expenditure scale has been stronger than other tech giants recently). The logic for Apple is similar to Tesla's, focusing on whether Apple's exclusive on-device AI ecosystem—Apple Intelligence (AI features integrated into iOS and other platform products)—successfully translates into user stickiness and stronger incremental revenue for consumer electronics lines like the iPhone. Wall Street analysts generally expect company revenue to still be primarily driven by iPhone and services revenue, but how AI accelerates growth in consumer electronics and the services ecosystem, and the timing of the unveiling of a new Siri based on Alphabet's Gemini model, will be key focal points.
Just five months ago, SanDisk was viewed as a legacy storage product company struggling with outdated technology, its main products—USB flash drives, portable SSDs, and digital camera memory cards—considered "relics" of the tech industry. However, an unexpected surge in demand for storage chips has propelled this US storage giant's stock to deliver a staggering near-1000% return in a short period, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, with cumulative gains exceeding 110% year-to-date in 2026, firmly positioning it at the core of the global AI investment theme. Despite a stellar super bull run in 2025 and a continuing bullish start to 2026, global investors have not become overly anxious about the suddenly elevated valuations of these storage tech companies, believing the unprecedented frenzy in AI data center construction is altering the "strongly cyclical nature" of the storage chip sector.
Judging from OpenAI's cumulative AI computing infrastructure agreements nearing $1.4 trillion and the "Stargate" AI infrastructure project, coupled with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's statement that "contextual reasoning is the new memory bottleneck," these super AI infrastructure projects desperately require massive amounts of enterprise-grade high-performance data center storage (centered on HBM systems, enterprise SSDs/HDDs, server-grade DDR5, etc.), driving demand and prices for almost all storage products and fueling parabolic growth in storage manufacturers' stock prices. Whether it's Google's massive TPU AI computing clusters or vast NVIDIA AI GPU computing clusters, all rely on fully integrated HBM storage systems paired with AI chips. Furthermore, tech giants accelerating the construction or expansion of AI data centers must purchase server-grade DDR5 memory and enterprise high-performance SSDs/HDDs on a large scale. The market will closely watch whether Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate can translate the persistently soaring prices of DRAM/NAND product lines and the "near-insatiable demand" from global tech firms for enterprise data center-grade high-performance storage chips into far better-than-expected actual earnings and provide stronger guidance ranges than consensus estimates.
Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings guidance released earlier this month indicated Q4 operating profit could reach a record high of 20 trillion won (approximately $138 billion), implying a massive 208% year-over-year increase and beating analyst average expectations; revenue grew 23% YoY to 93 trillion won, also a record high. Wall Street analysts are becoming increasingly positive on the fundamentals and stock prospects of core storage chip/product companies. Bloomberg compiled data shows that over the past three months, Wall Street analysts' consensus EPS estimate for SanDisk for 2026 has been raised a record 172%, while revenue estimates have been raised over 21%. Expectations for Micron have also been significantly revised upwards by analysts.
Minnesota has become the world's most watched region! ICE, labeled by media as a modern "Gestapo," ignites the US government shutdown crisis. Last Saturday, the second fatal shooting involving federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota within two weeks has ignited a partisan political stalemate in the US Congress, drastically increasing the risk of a US government shutdown by month's end. As several key Democratic Senators changed their stance due to the Minnesota shootings, opposing funding for the Department of Homeland Security, it has become difficult to advance spending bills needed to avoid a shutdown. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of the US federal government shutting down again before January 31 has surged dramatically to 75%, posing a severe test for global financial order, market liquidity, and fiscal stability.
Following the second fatal shooting incident involving federal officers in Minneapolis within three weeks, political maneuvering within the US Congress has escalated sharply, causing the risk of a partial federal government shutdown at the end of January to rise dramatically. The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency, established under President Trump, has even been called a modern version of the "Gestapo" by some US media. According to US media reports, after a US citizen was shot and killed by an ICE agent earlier this month, another fatal shooting occurred in Minneapolis on Saturday the 24th, resulting in the death of 37-year-old emergency room nurse Alex Pretti following a rough shooting by ICE. In response, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated clearly that, given the severity of the incident, Democrats would refuse to advance must-pass spending plans if the Trump-backed funding bill continues to include appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Currently, the US Senate was originally planning to vote this week on an omnibus package containing six bills to avert the January 31 shutdown crisis. However, current partisan calculations make the 60 Senate votes required to pass the bill precarious. The Republican party, led by Trump, currently holds 53 seats in the Senate, meaning they need support from at least 7 Democrats to pass the bill; otherwise, the US government could face another shutdown crisis at the end of January.
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is重磅来袭! Will Powell, facing criminal charges, attend the Fed press conference as scheduled? Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley, in its latest research report, expects the Fed to soothe markets with a "dovish pause"—holding rates steady due to recent labor market stabilization but retaining a bias towards future easing. Morgan Stanley stated that for investors, the key to this FOMC meeting lies in the forward guidance suspense. The firm expects the FOMC statement to upgrade its assessment of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid" while retaining the easing-biased phrasing about "considering the extent of any additional policy firming and the timing of such adjustments." Morgan Stanley also expects the timing of the next Fed rate cut to be delayed from its previous expectation of January to June, with a subsequent cut possibly in September. According to a financial media survey of around 100 global economists, all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its January 27-28 meeting. More critically, about 58% of surveyed economists predict rates will remain unchanged throughout the first quarter, a significant shift from last month when most expected at least one cut by March.
Consensus expectations compiled by LSEG show that Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist at Nomura, was one of the most accurate forecasters last year. He stated that while the surface US economic outlook, particularly the softening non-farm labor market, suggests the Fed should remain on hold, potentially even putting rate hikes back on the table later this year or next, in practical monetary policy operations, the Fed under Chair Powell's leadership is highly likely to remain "on hold" until his term ends in May. Additionally, President Trump told reporters last Thursday in Davos that he had completed interviews with candidates for the new Fed Chair, had made up his mind, but provided no further details. US Treasury Secretary Besant, leading the months-long selection process, indicated almost simultaneously that Trump could announce his final decision as early as this week.
Data from paid betting and prediction platform Polymarket showed that as of Saturday EST (January 24), the probability of BlackRock's Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder becoming Fed Chair had surged to 54%, far ahead of the second-place contender Warsh (29%). At the start of the year, Rieder's probability was only 4%. Furthermore, as the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell concerning the Fed's headquarters renovation and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope, whether Powell can attend the press conference timely has become uncertain. Undoubtedly, the Fed's decades-long monetary policy independence faces an "unprecedented political offensive." "All of this is pretext," Powell said in a statement posted on the Fed's website. "The threat of criminal charges is because the Fed sets the benchmark rate based on our professional judgment of what best serves the American public, not by following the preferences of the US President."
Will the US and Japan jointly push the Yen higher? Expectations in the FX market have surged sharply for potential action by the Japanese government to curb the Yen's recent decline, possibly accompanied by rare assistance from the US government. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had previously issued a warning to act against "abnormal volatility in the Yen." Influenced by this, the Yen extended gains in Monday's Asian session, with the USD/JPY rate falling nearly 1% to 154.23 at one point, hitting its highest level in over a month. Last Friday, the Yen rose as much as 1.75%, its largest single-day gain since August 1. The New York Fed's exchange rate checks and recent close communication between Japanese Finance Minister Tsuyoshi Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Besant have led FX traders to increasingly believe in the possibility of coordinated US-Japan intervention to limit the surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields. Market rumors about the NY Fed conducting checks—unconfirmed by the Fed or Japanese government—may make the market hesitant to casually bet on further Yen weakness while forcing the covering of substantial short Yen positions—the scale of which has recently seen its largest increase in over a decade. According to NY Fed website data, the US has only intervened in the FX market three times since 1996, most recently in 2011 after the Japan earthquake when the US and other G7 members jointly sold Yen to help stabilize FX trading.
Anthony Doyle, Chief Investment Strategist at Pinnacle Investment Management, stated, "Unilateral Japanese action to boost the Yen could both pressure domestic markets and risk global spillover effects. Therefore, for some market participants, coordinated US-Japan intervention, achieving a result similar to a 'second Plaza Accord,' is no longer a far-fetched idea. Once the US Treasury Department acts proactively, it often signifies the matter has transcended the realm of routine FX market fluctuations."