Recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in February, influenced by factors including the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. However, the production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.2%, up by 0.6 percentage points from January, signaling enhanced confidence among manufacturing firms regarding post-holiday market prospects. Concurrently, the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 49.5%, showing a slight improvement from the prior month.
Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing continued to be evident. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5% in February, remaining in expansionary territory and significantly above the overall manufacturing average, indicating favorable development trends in related sectors. The consumer goods industry PMI rose to 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in sentiment. In contrast, the equipment manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industry PMIs were 49.8% and 47.8% respectively, down by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, indicating some softening.
Analyzing the sub-indices, the production and business activity expectation index climbed to 53.2%, suggesting positive corporate outlooks. Industries such as general equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and others reported expectation indices above 56.0%, indicating heightened optimism among related enterprises.
The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 49.5% in February, a marginal rise of 0.1 percentage points, pointing to a slight improvement in overall sector sentiment. The services industry business activity index rose to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, largely driven by holiday-related consumer spending in sectors like accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment, all of which reported indices above 60.0%. Retail and air transport sectors also saw indices rise above 52.0%. The services business activity expectation index remained high at 55.8%, indicating sustained optimism. Conversely, the construction business activity index fell to 48.2%, influenced by workers returning home for the holidays and paused projects, though its expectation index rebounded to 50.9%, reflecting restored confidence.
Looking ahead, economic sentiment is expected to recover. For manufacturing, the seasonal impact of the Spring Festival is seen as temporary, with positive factors accumulating. As holiday effects fade and temperatures rise, facilitating full resumption of work at factories and construction sites, economic activity is anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory. Policy measures aimed at stabilizing the economy, expanding domestic demand, and supporting foreign trade are expected to help manufacturing stabilize and rebound, with demand growing steadily and qualitatively. Production is likely to recover well, particularly in new growth drivers, and optimism among firms is rising.
For non-manufacturing, as production and construction enter their peak season post-holiday, with resumption of work and commencement of key projects, sectors related to investment, such as construction and producer services, are expected to see improved sentiment. While consumer-related services might experience a slight dip due to the high base effect of holiday spending, the gradual normalization of social activities should help stabilize their performance.
Overall, with policy measures positively influencing corporate confidence, expectation indices have improved. As the economy is at a critical stage of regaining momentum, enhancing government investment in public goods to significantly boost demand and orders, alongside counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic adjustments, is crucial for bolstering corporate confidence.