Huaan Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report noting that in the second half of 2026, the focus for large-scale energy storage will be on system integrator price transmission, margin recovery, and data center order fulfillment. Companies with global delivery capabilities, PCS/EMS, long-duration energy storage solutions, and cloud customer resources are expected to benefit from both improved profitability and valuation re-rating. The competitive focus for distributed energy storage is shifting from pure equipment pricing to channels, financing, EMS scheduling, and after-sales service. Priority should be given to companies with shared channels for residential and commercial storage, hybrid inverters, integrated/modular energy storage products, overseas local service capabilities, and virtual power plant (VPP) operations.
Large-Scale Energy Storage: Global large-scale energy storage is expected to maintain high growth, with installations projected to reach approximately 501 GWh in 2026 and 1,601 GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 34% from 2026 to 2030. China and North America will contribute the majority of the increase. Domestically, from January to June 2026, new installations totaled 25.05 GW/65.17 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 14% and 18%, respectively. During the same period, new bidding capacity reached 265.3 GWh, with independent energy storage continuing to dominate demand.
Revenue: Domestic independent energy storage is transitioning from reliance on project-based allocation to support from capacity tariffs, spot market arbitrage, and ancillary services. When spot price spreads widen and dispatch frequency increases, project internal rates of return (IRR) have room to rise. Europe generates revenue through multiple markets, including spot, intraday, and frequency regulation. Australia has mature market mechanisms, while the Middle East and India are rapidly scaling up through large projects and policy support.
New Core Theme: Power shortages from AI data centers are upgrading energy storage from a grid regulation device to a critical infrastructure for computing power, enabling fast grid connection, peak shaving, backup power, green energy consumption, and islanded grid primary supply. The US is expected to require 127.3 GWh of large-scale energy storage by 2027, with data center-related demand accounting for 55.2%. By 2030, global data center energy storage is expected to represent about 48% of total large-scale storage demand.
Distributed Energy Storage: Residential energy storage is entering a phase of steady growth, with global installations expected to rise from 47.92 GWh in 2026 to 81.42 GWh by 2030, a CAGR of approximately 14%. Commercial and industrial (C&I) energy storage is in a faster growth phase, expanding from 45.54 GWh to 183.98 GWh over the same period, a CAGR of about 42%.
Residential Storage: After European inventories are cleared, a moderate recovery is expected, with dynamic electricity prices enhancing solar-plus-storage returns. The UK's "Warm Homes Plan" and Australian subsidies directly reduce upfront costs for households. The US 25D tax credit exit will temporarily suppress cash and loan purchases, but VPP, leasing, and third-party ownership models are expected to take over. Markets in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asian islands are driven by power outages and diesel replacement, with stronger demand for off-grid switching, long-duration backup, and weak-grid adaptability.
Commercial and Industrial Storage: Overseas demand is driven by peak-valley arbitrage, demand charge management, solar self-consumption, and demand response. A typical 500 kW/1 MWh project in Germany has an estimated IRR of about 18.7% and a payback period of around 4.9 years. In the US, the focus is on demand charges and demand response, while in Australia, high solar penetration and electricity price volatility are key drivers. Domestically, the fixed peak-valley arbitrage model is weakening, with project returns shifting toward spot trading, virtual power plants, demand response, and load forecasting.
Risk Disclosures: 1) Decline in global new energy and energy storage demand; 2) Intensified industry competition affecting profit margins; 3) Uncertainty in global tariff policies.