UBS Anticipates Solid Operational Profit Growth for Ping An Last Year, Maintains HK$88 Target Price

Stock News
Mar 03

UBS has released a research report stating that PING AN (02318) is scheduled to announce its 2025 financial results after market close on March 26. On a comparable basis, the firm expects the group's attributable operating profit to increase by 9% year-on-year, implying a 23% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter. UBS indicated that the acceleration in growth during the fourth quarter was primarily driven by reduced impairment losses in the asset management business and a stronger improvement in property and casualty insurance underwriting profits. UBS made minor adjustments to its Ping An model but kept its forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders largely unchanged, maintaining a target price of HK$88 and a "Buy" rating. Regarding net profit attributable to shareholders, UBS projects a 5% year-on-year increase for the full year 2025. Net asset value is expected to grow 7% year-on-year, suggesting a modest sequential rise in the fourth quarter. Total dividends for the full year 2025 are forecasted at RMB 2.68 per share, up 5% year-on-year. In the long term, UBS believes total dividend payouts should ultimately align with the growth of attributable operating profit. UBS also anticipates that the group's new business value for the full year 2025 will increase by 30% year-on-year. Compared to traditional products, dividend insurance policies carry lower interest rate risk and earnings volatility. The firm expects Ping An to achieve 25% to 30% new business value growth in the first quarter of 2026 and forecasts 18% full-year new business value growth for 2026, which could lead the industry. UBS considers that Ping An, leveraging its scale advantages such as brand strength and bargaining power with banks, along with its commitment to expanding the bancassurance channel, is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities from deposit migration and bancassurance collaboration.

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