Oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to reduce production next year, even as forecasts suggest a global supply glut could drive crude prices lower. While many anticipate an oversupply in 2026, analysts argue it may not be severe enough to force OPEC+ to reverse this year's output increases.

A survey of 25 brokers and analysts revealed nearly two-thirds believe OPEC and its allies are unlikely to cut production in 2026. Less than a third expect the group to agree on supply reductions, which would mark its first such move in over two years.

In April, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, shocked markets by swiftly restoring previously halted production—a move seen as reclaiming market share despite ample supply. As signs of oversupply emerged—with the IEA projecting a record surplus by 2026—producers grew cautious, agreeing this month to pause further output hikes in early 2026.

Brent crude futures have fallen 14% this year to around $64 per barrel, straining OPEC+ members' finances. Some Wall Street forecasters predict further declines. Morgan Stanley suggests a "significant likelihood" OPEC+ may slash output sharply in 2026 to avert a price crash. However, only 8 of 25 surveyed analysts expect the group to curb production next year, while 12 foresee no action unless markets collapse unexpectedly.

Greg Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, noted: "A policy shift toward cuts would require a clear demand collapse, prices below $50, and OPEC leaders recognizing the need to return to market management."

Since April, eight key OPEC+ members have restored about three-quarters of their 3.85 million bpd cuts from 2023—a year ahead of schedule. Sources close to Saudi Arabia say the output boost aims to recapture market share lost to rivals like U.S. shale drillers, with potential political motives as Riyadh seeks U.S. security assurances.

Consultancies FGE and Rapidan Energy Group suggest the pause in output hikes may pave the way for new cuts. With weak demand growth and robust supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, the IEA warns of a potential 4 million bpd surplus—unprecedented outside the 2020 pandemic.

Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy stated: "Either this looming surplus is a mirage, or OPEC+ must act in 2026 to prevent a price plunge—possibly through deep cuts if geopolitical disruptions or sanctions don’t intervene."

Falling crude prices pressure OPEC+ budgets, with Saudi Arabia facing widening deficits and cuts to flagship projects. Yet forecasters like Goldman Sachs and HSBC predict a smaller surplus than the IEA’s estimate.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss suggested OPEC+ could emerge stronger by late 2026 if it weathers early-year market softness, as non-OPEC supply growth may stall. The group may then declare its market-share strategy a success, especially if peak demand arrives later than expected.

Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, a former OPEC official, said: "OPEC+ won’t cut in 2026—they’ve clearly chosen to reclaim market share."