Abstract

RLX Technology will report its quarterly results on May 20, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s metrics, current-quarter estimates, and the predominant institutional view based on recently available coverage and estimate trends.

Market Forecast

The market’s latest compiled estimates indicate RLX Technology’s current-quarter revenue of CNY 1.15 billion, implying 50.93% year-over-year growth, with EPS around 0.21, up 23.53% year over year; EBIT is expected near CNY 169.72 million, up 114.42% year over year. Formal guidance on gross profit margin and net profit margin for the quarter is not provided, and sell-side consensus does not indicate a definitive margin target, though margins are expected to reflect the product and channel mix observed last quarter. The sales mix remains dominated by offline distribution and is expected to benefit from continued channel normalization and steady sell-through in core provinces. Within the portfolio, the direct-to-consumer pathway is viewed as the highest incremental growth lever given traffic recovery and a more targeted promotional cadence, with last quarter’s revenue of CNY 252.82 million as a base for further year-over-year improvement.

Last Quarter Review

RLX Technology reported revenue of CNY 1.14 billion for the prior quarter, a gross profit margin of 33.12%, net profit attributable to the parent company of CNY 280.00 million, a net profit margin of 25.86%, and adjusted EPS of 0.25, up 31.58% year over year. Quarter over quarter, net profit increased by 37.60%, supported by disciplined operating expenses and a more profitable mix of consumables. In the main business, offline distribution remained the core sales engine, accounting for the bulk of channel revenue and totaling CNY 3.49 billion; the direct-to-consumer route delivered CNY 252.82 million, and other revenue contributed CNY 216.00 million; management narrative and sales channel data suggest ongoing mix optimization, though segment-specific year-over-year deltas were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core sales engine: offline distribution channels

Offline distribution continues to anchor RLX Technology’s quarterly sales and cost absorption dynamics, and the near-term setup suggests steady replenishment behavior from distributors as retail inventory remains within normalized bands. The company’s prior-quarter margin print of 33.12% provides a reasonable baseline for gross-profit performance, with channel pricing and product mix appearing stable enough to maintain a low-30s gross margin profile absent unusual promotions. Promotional cadence has shown signs of rationalization, which, coupled with product upgrades skewing toward higher-margin lines within consumables, may limit downside to contribution margins in the core offline routes. The key watch item for this quarter is the alignment between shipment growth and underlying sell-through, especially as the market cycles past the holiday tailwinds embedded in the prior quarter. As long as restocking is consistent with retail trends and not merely pipeline loading, EBIT trajectory can track the estimated CNY 169.72 million (up 114.42% year over year) without undue inventory risk. Operationally, the offline network’s breadth supports stable fixed-cost absorption in logistics and field execution, which helps protect operating leverage should top-line growth land near the consensus CNY 1.15 billion figure.

Highest growth leg: direct-to-consumer and new-format monetization

The direct-to-consumer pathway, measured last quarter at CNY 252.82 million, is positioned to outgrow the broader company average as traffic improves and conversion benefits from tighter cohort targeting. While segment-level year-over-year growth is not provided, quantitative signals around improved engagement and a more focused promotional mix suggest a constructive setup. This route also amplifies data feedback loops, enabling faster pricing and assortment adjustments that can help defend gross margin contribution even when broader channel pricing is steady. Beyond near-term traffic, product refresh cycles and accessory attachment rates are potential incremental drivers for the DTC and near-DTC footprints. These factors can modestly boost blended gross margin by expanding the share of higher-value consumables relative to devices. Because this route has fewer intermediaries, its economics can scale efficiently with modest volume gains, reinforcing the EBIT bridge to estimates if execution remains consistent. The most important execution test this quarter is to maintain conversion gains while holding the line on promotions, avoiding the kind of discounting that would dilute the gains in EPS expected at 0.21 this quarter.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Earnings-day volatility is most sensitive to the balance of revenue growth versus margin resilience. With revenue expected to rise 50.93% year over year to CNY 1.15 billion, investors will look for confirmation that the gross margin can remain near the low-30s level observed last quarter while operating expenses stay contained so that EBIT tracks the triple-digit year-over-year growth implied by consensus. Any deviation tied to pricing actions or a sudden shift in product mix toward lower-margin SKUs would likely have an outsized impact on sentiment. Sell-through versus sell-in quality will be scrutinized as a signpost for sustainability of growth; if inventory indicators suggest healthy turnover in the offline network and continued uplift in DTC conversion, the market should treat the revenue cadence as repeatable rather than a one-off step-up. Cash conversion and working-capital discipline remain secondary but relevant: a quarter that pairs accelerating top line with steady receivable days and lean channel inventories would be seen as validating the earnings quality behind the EPS estimate of 0.21. Finally, management’s commentary on the pace of product innovation and the roadmap for incremental channel productivity will influence how investors model gross margin and EPS beyond this quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Across accessible coverage and financial-media commentary during the January 1, 2026 to May 13, 2026 window, the prevailing stance skews bullish, with the majority view citing accelerating year-over-year growth in consensus estimates and improved earnings quality. Commentaries emphasize three pillars supporting a constructive outlook for the May 20, 2026 print: the reacceleration implied by the revenue estimate of CNY 1.15 billion (+50.93% year over year), the EBIT expansion signaled by the CNY 169.72 million forecast (+114.42% year over year), and the durability of EPS at an estimated 0.21 (+23.53% year over year) if gross margin holds near last quarter’s profile. Financial editorial coverage in the period also highlights ongoing product and channel execution as the backbone of near-term performance, noting that measured marketing intensity and mix improvements have helped underpin recent profitability. The distribution of sentiment tilts positive by a wide margin—based on the available institutional-style commentary and earnings-tracker expectations, the ratio of bullish to bearish takes is decisively in favor of the bulls. The bullish camp’s central argument is that the company has entered a phase where revenue growth is outpacing expense growth, allowing operating leverage to show through without requiring unusually aggressive discounting. In that framework, maintaining a gross profit margin near last quarter’s 33.12% is consistent with delivering the forecasted EPS, provided channel inventory stays balanced and the direct-to-consumer pathway continues to scale from its CNY 252.82 million base. In the qualitative highlights, coverage points to a narrow set of execution checks for the quarter—specifically, sustaining sell-through momentum in offline distribution and continued efficiency gains in DTC engagement. The consensus-leaning view is that these checks are achievable, given the sequential net-profit improvement of 37.60% last quarter and the observed discipline in operating expenses. On balance, the analyst and institutional tone assigns more weight to upside risk from mix and channel productivity than to downside risk from unforeseen pricing pressure, which aligns with the majority-bullish stance heading into the Pre-Market report on May 20, 2026.