On Monday, September 15, spot gold edged down 0.12% for the session, touching an intraday low of $4,261.24 per ounce before settling at $4,293.52, just barely holding above the 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $4,332.80. A convergence of headwinds鈥攁 stronger U.S. dollar, surging Treasury yields, a sharp spike in crude oil prices, and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes鈥攃ontinued to weigh heavily on the precious metal.

Later today, ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, the market will also digest the U.S. August retail sales data, often dubbed the "恐怖数据" for its potential to trigger volatility. Traders are advised to keep a close eye on this release for further directional cues.

Where to focus: The current chart structure reveals a weak, oscillating downtrend for gold. Both the daily and 4-hour timeframes are aligned in a bearish resonance, confirming a clear downward trajectory. On the daily chart, the metal continues to trade below the entire cluster of moving averages, with short-term MAs forming a bearish alignment and fanning out lower. Each rebound attempt has been capped by descending MA resistance, allowing bearish momentum to build steadily. The Bollinger Bands are tilting downward, with prices grinding lower along the middle and lower bands, and no definitive signs of a bottoming pattern have emerged yet.

On the 4-hour chart, consecutive bearish candlesticks punctuated by feeble bullish corrections highlight an intact descending channel. All technical indicators are pointing south, while bullish momentum continues to fade. The occasional oversold bounces are merely technical repairs and lack the strength to overturn the prevailing bearish structure.

In summary, the dual-timeframe technical outlook remains firmly under pressure, suggesting the market will persist in a weak, choppy descent. Any meaningful rally should be viewed as a fresh selling opportunity.

Trading strategy: For intraday levels, watch the daily 5-day moving average at $4,310 as immediate resistance for initiating short positions. A strong breakout above that would shift focus to the 10-day MA near $4,360. On the downside, initial support lies at $4,230; a rapid break below that level could open the path toward $4,190, where a stabilization might trigger a corrective bounce.

Please note: This analysis is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should exercise their own judgment and assume full responsibility for their trading decisions.