Strategists from the financial giant Goldman Sachs recently indicated that the actual scale of initial public offerings (IPO) in the U.S. stock market is expected to rebound strongly this year, driven by multiple factors. These include a solid long-term U.S. economic backdrop, increased confidence among corporate boards, and anticipated persistently accommodative monetary policy. Rising IPO volume and numbers often serve as leading indicators of market sentiment and capital market financing activity. Therefore, for the "super long-term bull market" in U.S. stocks since 2023, positive IPO trends suggest the market's strong upward momentum may continue.
A team of equity strategists led by Goldman Sachs senior strategist Ben Snider wrote in a research report that they expect IPO fundraising in 2026 to reach approximately $160 billion, significantly surpassing last year's total of only about $48 billion. Their latest forecast excludes SPACs and other types of fundraising vehicles. "We anticipate very solid economic growth activity this year, continued improvement in CEO confidence, friendly monetary policy, and ongoing appreciation in U.S. stock prices," the Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in the report. They believe the projected increase in IPO scale and number represents more of a return to normalcy from unusually depressed levels rather than a speculative market boom.
Goldman Sachs strategists forecast the number of U.S. IPO deals will increase to 120 in 2026, implying a near doubling compared to last year. In terms of value, the issuance volume would still account for only about 0.2% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index, one of the major U.S. stock indices, below the peak of 0.3% seen in 2021.
The U.S. IPO market has had a mixed start this year. After several high-profile companies faced difficulties in their initial trading sessions recently, shares of notable hair loss drug developer Veradermics Inc. surged 122% in their Wednesday debut. Conversely, cancer drug developer Eikon Therapeutics Inc. saw its stock unexpectedly plunge 17% on Thursday.
For the Goldman Sachs strategist team led by Snider, key risks for the 2026 U.S. IPO market primarily include the re-emergence of severe market volatility, which is highly detrimental to actual IPO volume expansion. For instance, the sharp turbulence experienced by global stock markets last week, led by a sell-off in technology shares, caused traders to question the return prospects of massive investments in AI computing infrastructure.
Strategist Snider also pointed out that the heavy weighting of software companies in the potential IPO pipeline remains a risk. The recent "Anthropic storm" that swept through financial markets significantly damaged the valuation outlook for software stocks. Earlier this year, Anthropic, dubbed an "OpenAI rival," launched Claude Cowork, an agentic AI programming tool with innovative engineering collaboration features. This tool even aims to expand AI agent capabilities from programming terminals to broader general office scenarios like file management and software interaction, substantially amplifying market fears about AI agents potentially disrupting the SaaS software industry.
The two main culprits behind the collective crash in global software stocks from last Tuesday to Thursday were new AI tools from Anthropic: one is a highly efficient agentic AI capable of performing multiple clerical tasks, including tracking compliance matters and reviewing legal documents; the other is Claude Opus 4.6, launched on Thursday, which demonstrates comprehensive leadership and significantly surpasses the GPT-5.2 large model in areas like AI programming, financial analysis, deep analysis of legal documents, and Office collaborative work. It's important to note that capabilities like legal document review, financial analysis, and proprietary data service technologies have long been the strongest moats for many SaaS companies. Upon the news of Thursday's update, financial analysis service provider FactSet plummeted as much as 10% intraday, while Thomson Reuters, S&P Global, Moody's, and Nasdaq Inc. continued their sharp declines, dragging down all three major U.S. stock indices.
**SpaceX, OpenAI, and Other Giants' IPOs Could Ignite a New 2026 U.S. IPO Cycle**
From a specific potential issuer perspective, several very large private companies, including SpaceX, are preparing for highly anticipated public listings, which could lead to a wide range of significant potential outcomes for the total issuance volume, the strategists including Snider wrote. If these well-known companies remain private, issuance could be as low as $80 billion; if all proceed with IPOs, it could ultimately reach $200 billion, with SpaceX alone potentially raising up to $50 billion.
The strategists noted that stock market returns are typically stronger during periods of heavy listing activity. "Historical data shows that a significant increase in IPO activity, especially high-profile IPOs, often coincides with strong returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, but subsequent investment returns may be below average due to profit-taking," these strategists stated. "However, historically, the most active IPO periods have often been accompanied by prolonged broad market bullish sentiment. Recent high-profile IPOs have had lower valuations but higher profitability compared to most periods."
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), founded and led by Elon Musk, is actively advancing its IPO plans. It is expected to achieve a valuation potentially exceeding $1.5 trillion and aims to launch its public offering around mid-2026, possibly in June. SpaceX has engaged with several banks, and its listing could raise well over tens of billions of dollars. SpaceX's anticipated valuation is close to Tesla's $1.6 trillion market cap. The combination of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI forging a "Musk super business empire" might be the ultimate destiny for these three companies founded by Musk.
Recently, SpaceX announced a major acquisition of xAI, another private company founded by Musk and considered one of OpenAI's strongest competitors in the AI startup space. This move creates a super tech giant with a business scope encompassing "commercial aerospace (Starlink/Starshield) + computing power (terrestrial/future orbital) + AI large models (Grok AI model/AI agent products) + marketing/distribution (X social media platform)."
OpenAI is also widely believed by Wall Street analysts to be preparing for a 2026 listing. Although not officially announced, media reports suggest it is in talks with top law firms regarding IPO matters. Market expectations place its potential valuation near the $1 trillion level, with a possible filing in the second half of 2026. Another AI unicorn, Anthropic—OpenAI's strongest competitor, which recently single-handedly impacted software stock valuations—is also expected by the market to attempt a public offering in 2026. Reports indicate the company has hired a law firm to assist with preparations and has held preliminary discussions with large Wall Street investment banks, with a potential valuation in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Beyond these three, market observers have highlighted other companies to watch closely that might go public in the next year or two, or be part of the potential 2026 U.S. IPO wave: - Canva: This design platform company is seen as a potential major IPO candidate, particularly noted within the startup and SaaS sectors. - Strava: The massively popular global sports social tech platform is also on the watchlist of some investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, for potential 2026 IPOs. - Databricks: Although this cloud data warehouse super-unicorn recently achieved a funding valuation as high as $134 billion, and the market believes it may eventually pursue an IPO, the company currently chooses to remain private and continue expanding.
**IPO Boom is Crucial for the U.S. Stock Bull Market Trend**
IPO activity typically recovers in environments characterized by rising risk appetite, high overall stock valuations, and easy financing conditions. The Goldman Sachs strategist team's latest projection expects U.S. IPO fundraising to surge to approximately $160 billion in 2026, with the number of IPOs expected to roughly double from last year to around 120. This anticipated surge is driven by the combined positive effects of robust economic activity, improved corporate board confidence, relatively accommodative monetary policy, and overall stock market appreciation.
At the microstructural level of financial markets, a significant rebound in IPOs is often associated with strengthened risk appetite linking primary and secondary markets. When stock markets rally strongly and continue to rise, more private companies choose to go public to access capital and realize investment returns. This reflects a substantial recovery in demand for risk assets from both a capital and sentiment perspective. Simultaneously, heightened investor expectations for future valuation growth and improved liquidity can stimulate earlier and larger-scale IPO activity, creating a virtuous cycle. This cycle acts as a crucial positive feedback catalyst for the healthy development trajectory of an overall stock market bull run.