On November 27, IDC released its top ten insights for China's PC market in 2026. The firm projects China's PC shipments to reach 42.22 million units in 2026, marking a slight 0.8% year-on-year decline. The consumer segment, after achieving 3.6% growth in 2025, is expected to drop 1.1% in 2026 due to early demand fulfillment. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will see slow recovery with a 2.7% decline, while government, education, and large enterprises may grow 1.9% driven by policy support and replacement cycles.

The standout performer is GenAI PCs, forecast to skyrocket 146.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a 58.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2029. By 2029, GenAI PCs could account for 36.5% of the total PC market. As AI adoption grows and edge applications mature, GenAI PCs are poised to become a new market engine, driving structural upgrades.

Gaming PCs are also evolving, with demand projected to rise 3.1% in 2026. AI technology is reshaping the gaming PC sector by enhancing rendering efficiency and interactive experiences, fostering a "tech-driven demand" cycle. Competition is shifting from pure hardware performance to AI-centric ecosystems. IDC estimates China's gaming PC shipments will hit 15.13 million units in 2026 (35.9% of total PC shipments), surpassing 16 million by 2029 (36.7% share), with a 2.4% CAGR (2025–2029).

AI PCs are entering a rapid growth phase, with prices gradually declining due to intensified chip competition and economies of scale. Edge computing, leveraging real-time response and privacy advantages, is becoming a key growth driver. The "edge-cloud" synergy optimizes computing architecture: terminals handle interaction, edge nodes manage complex tasks, and the cloud focuses on model training.

Ultra-compact PCs are gaining traction in commercial markets, with shipments expected to grow 28.6% year-on-year to 671,000 units in 2026. Meanwhile, demand for immersive displays contrasts with streamlined local computing power.

The workplace is transforming, with AI-native enterprises projected to comprise 31% of new businesses in 2026. Emerging roles like drone swarm planners and AI-assisted designers will exceed 10% of new jobs. This shift fuels demand for commercial AI PCs, forecast to reach 5.98 million units by 2029 (72% CAGR 2025–2029), accelerating the transition from traditional IT services to AI-driven solutions.

Non-Windows products for large clients may grow 10.3% to 5.6 million units in 2026, amid polarized pricing trends. High-end products maintain stable shipments, while budget segments face intense competition.

Consumer PC demand is diversifying: office workers (29.8% of 2026 purchases), students (61.4%), and seniors (6.2%) are key drivers. AI adoption may shorten replacement cycles from 4–5 years as user dependency deepens.

Commercial diversification is accelerating, with workstation shipments rising 5.2% to 660,000 units and industrial PCs growing 11.7% to 4.56 million in 2026. Cloud terminals are booming, with a 16% CAGR over five years, driven by 4K support and telecom cloud services.

Regionally, tier-2 and tier-3 cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu will dominate 39.7% of PC purchases in 2026, fueled by younger demographics and rising incomes. Eastern China leads in sales growth, with 0.59 million units sold.

IDC concludes that China's PC market in 2026 will balance stability and transformation, led by GenAI PCs, gaming PCs, and AI-driven commercial upgrades. Vendors must prioritize AI PC development, service capabilities, and supply chain resilience to navigate evolving challenges.

As AI integrates deeper into diverse scenarios, China's PC market will advance toward smarter, more versatile solutions, urging stakeholders to seize emerging opportunities for value growth.