Global hedge fund managers indicate that a diverse portfolio of assets, including short-term US Treasury bonds, depressed Asian currencies, and even instant noodle stocks, could be among the early beneficiaries of a US-Iran agreement.
As short-term capital reverts to pre-conflict investment strategies, Florida-based Grey Value Management and Singapore's Reed Capital Partners both see value in short-term US Treasuries, with the latter also purchasing the Japanese yen. Vantage Point Asset Management suggests that previously pressured Southeast Asian stock markets may outperform.
With market confidence recovering, Thomas Hayes, Chairman of New York-based hedge fund Great Hill Capital, is looking to buy US consumer stocks.
Hayes stated that as inflation expectations subside due to the agreement, the current strategy is to return to methods that were effective in January or February, prior to the conflict; his firm manages over $10 billion in assets.
The peace agreement to be signed by the US and Iran on Friday removes a major source of uncertainty for global markets. The months-long conflict had triggered the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, fueling global inflation concerns. Crude oil prices fell on Monday, boosting stock and bond markets, while the US dollar weakened due to reduced demand for global safe-haven assets.
As oil prices declined, prompting markets to lower expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, US Treasury bonds rose across the board on Monday.
For Chauwei Yak, CEO of Singapore's GAO Capital, Asian companies could be among the winners.
Asian stock markets suffered heavy losses during the US-Iran war, as the region's major economies are net oil importers. Benchmark stock indices in India and Indonesia are among the world's worst performers this year, with both countries' currencies hitting record lows.
Yak said it's possible to reassess certain companies that might have been impacted by oil price shocks had the war dragged on into the summer, such as instant noodle makers reliant on palm oil.
Since the start of the conflict, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen over 7%, with the technology sector being the only one to advance, while the other ten industry sectors declined.