市场观察:对美联储采取鹰派政策的押注提升美元支持

投资观察
Nov 17, 2025

0957 ET - 投资者越来越倾向于认为美联储下个月将维持利率不变。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具,目前美联储维持利率不变的概率为57%,较一周前的38%有所上升。连续第三次降息的概率则降至43%,而一周前为62%。尽管缺乏官方数据,私人指标却显示出经济活动和劳动力市场有一定的韧性,而通胀依然顽固,同时美联储的发言也变得更加谨慎。对暂停降息的押注支撑了美元,Bannockburn的Marc Chandler表示。WSJ美元指数上升0.3%,美元兑欧元、日元和瑞士法郎上涨约0.3%。

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