1404 ET - Touchstone分析师Erik Aarts表示,目前美联储很可能暂时忽略通胀的短期飙升,同时密切关注可能出现的增长放缓迹象。这使得利率在更长时间内维持当前水平的可能性,远高于加息。
自近一个月前伊朗战争爆发以来,期货市场对今年加息的押注持续增加。Aarts指出:"我们的看法略有不同。更可能出现的结果是需求受挫与经济增速放缓。"但他补充道,倘若核心通胀开始攀升,这一预期或将改变。
面对不确定性,Aarts已将资产配置从中性略微调整为超配久期,将目标久期从4.5年延长至5年,同时保持对7-10年期债券的敞口。
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