Abstract

MGIC Investment will release its Q4 2025 results on February 02, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching earnings per share, revenue, and margin trends to gauge sustainability of insurance underwriting income and investment results.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company guidance for the current quarter point to total revenue of USD 307.99 million, adjusted EPS of USD 0.76, and a modest year-over-year revenue increase of 1.47%, with adjusted EPS forecast to grow by 14.30%. While gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance are not disclosed in the forecast dataset, the company’s main business remains centered on net premiums and investment income. Net premiums are expected to continue to anchor revenue, supported by stable policy persistency and a normalized claims environment; investment income should reflect cautious reinvestment benefits from higher yields. The most promising segment is net premiums, which previously contributed USD 241.75 million; its outlook hinges on insurance-in-force stability and credit performance, with the year-over-year trajectory expected to be slightly positive based on revenue estimates.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter featured revenue of USD 304.51 million, a gross profit margin of 80.12%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 191.00 million, a net profit margin of 62.76%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.83, with revenue down by 0.70% year over year and adjusted EPS up by 7.79% year over year. A key highlight was resilient underwriting performance and favorable loss development, helping maintain margins despite revenue softness. Main business highlights included net premiums of USD 241.75 million and investment income of USD 62.21 million, with the remainder comprised of small realized gains and other items; the year-over-year change for revenue overall was a decline of 0.70%.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Net Premiums from Mortgage Insurance

Net premiums underpin MGIC Investment’s near-term earnings power. With insurance-in-force stable and the claims environment appearing benign, premium earnings are positioned to be consistent with recent quarters, supporting top-line stability. The forecast revenue of USD 307.99 million implies a modest uptick in earned premiums, and the margin backdrop from last quarter suggests that underwriting remains profitable. Watch for new business mix and lapse rates; incremental changes in credit score distribution and loan-to-value profiles can shift expected losses and ceded premiums, affecting net premiums in Q4 2025. Any adjustments in quota-share reinsurance or excess-of-loss structures could also influence earned net premiums and loss ratios.

Most Promising Segment: Net Premiums Outlook Amid a Stable Credit Cycle

Net premiums previously contributed USD 241.75 million and remain the largest earnings lever. A continued stable credit cycle should keep delinquency inflows contained and support persistency, allowing premiums to be recognized steadily. Even a small improvement in delinquency cure rates would add incremental support to margins through lower loss provisioning. Revenue guidance implies a modest year-over-year increase, and the segment’s contribution is poised to remain dominant, with upside tied to disciplined pricing and targeted growth in higher-quality originations.

Stock Price Drivers: Margins, Investment Yield, and Credit Performance

Stock performance this quarter will hinge on the margin trajectory, the yield environment, and credit outcomes. Last quarter’s gross margin of 80.12% and net margin of 62.76% set a high bar; investors will scrutinize whether underwriting profitability and loss ratios can sustain these levels. Higher reinvestment yields in the portfolio can lift investment income, augmenting revenue even if premium growth is moderate. The risk case revolves around macro-sensitive credit deterioration: weaker employment or home price trends could raise delinquencies, pressuring loss ratios and earnings. Conversely, stable macro data would underpin earnings and keep valuation anchored to return of capital potential.

Analyst Opinions

Across available institutional commentary during the past six months, the balance of views has been constructive on MGIC Investment’s near-term results, with the majority favoring continued margin strength and steady revenue. Recent previews lean bullish, citing durable underwriting profitability, a supportive claims environment, and the tailwind from higher fixed-income yields boosting investment income. This camp expects adjusted EPS to meet or slightly exceed the USD 0.76 forecast and revenue around USD 307.99 million, with capital return capacity viewed favorably against a stable risk backdrop. Analysts emphasize monitoring new insurance written quality and delinquency trends, but overall anticipate a solid print supported by disciplined pricing and a conservative risk posture.