Abstract

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 19, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to year-over-year growth led by revenue up 12.41%, EPS up 44.70%, and EBIT up 21.47%.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s prior disclosures and current-quarter forecasts, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is projected to deliver revenue of $470.90 million, EPS of $0.23, and EBIT of $34.63 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 12.41%, 44.70%, and 21.47%, respectively. Forecasts do not specify a gross margin or net margin for the current quarter; those figures will be key watch items alongside EPS at the print.

The main business, Solid Waste services, remains the largest revenue driver and is expected to underpin the quarter’s trajectory through disciplined pricing and steady route density initiatives; investors will look for signs that cost-saving programs can sustain margin stability against seasonal volume shifts. The most promising segment, Resource Solutions, is positioned to contribute incrementally via contract wins and commodity-price stabilization in recycling, with last quarter revenue at $93.18 million and an outlook supported by operating leverage as programs scale.

Last Quarter Review

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. reported a strong previous quarter with revenue of $485.35 million, a gross profit margin of 35.04%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $9.98 million, a net profit margin of 2.06%, and adjusted EPS of $0.42, representing 55.56% year-over-year growth.

A notable highlight was the outperformance versus expectations: revenue exceeded estimates by $8.71 million, adjusted EPS beat by $0.09, and EBIT of $52.97 million topped estimates by $8.34 million, while GAAP net profit accelerated quarter-on-quarter by 91.71%. In terms of business mix, Solid Waste generated $392.17 million (80.80% of quarterly revenue), and Resource Solutions delivered $93.18 million (19.20%), framing the company’s multi-pronged earnings base heading into the current period.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business: Solid Waste

Solid Waste services anchor Casella Waste Systems, Inc.’s revenue and cash flow, and the quarter-to-come will primarily hinge on the interplay of pricing discipline and operating efficiency. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 35.04% provides a useful benchmark; the extent to which route optimization, fleet utilization, and cost controls can defend that level will be closely watched as seasonal dynamics typically pressure volumes early in the year. With revenue projected at $470.90 million for the current quarter, a higher mix of contracted collection and disposal work could support predictable cash generation even if volumes are uneven, given typical weather-related impacts. Investors will monitor whether favorable pricing offsets inflationary elements in labor, maintenance, and equipment costs, thereby protecting EBIT, which is forecast to be $34.63 million (up 21.47% year-over-year). In addition, analysts will parse commentary for service churn and win rates in core markets, both of which influence revenue durability and margin trajectory in a segment that accounted for $392.17 million last quarter.

Most Promising Business: Resource Solutions

Resource Solutions is poised to add incremental momentum as program scale improves operational leverage. The segment posted $93.18 million in revenue last quarter and continues to benefit from a set of contracts that leverage recycling, organics recovery, and related resource-management services. While segment-specific year-over-year rates for the upcoming quarter are not disclosed, the broader company-level forecasts—revenue up 12.41% and EPS up 44.70% year-over-year—suggest operational efficiencies and pricing gains could support a constructive narrative for Resource Solutions. Commodity-price stabilization in recycling streams may reduce volatility in realized margins, although this remains a monitored variable, and investors will look for confirmation in management’s commentary about contract timing and volume consistency. Importantly, the segment’s contribution to EBIT growth can be meaningful because incremental revenue at scale often drops through at higher rates once fixed operating platforms are in place. Watching for updates on contract renewals and new program launches will be central to gauging the near-term earnings impact.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The first determinant is the degree to which earnings quality aligns with the company’s forecast trajectory—EPS is projected at $0.23, up 44.70% year-over-year, and the market will be quick to reward an in-line or better outcome, especially if revenue of $470.90 million arrives near plan with a constructive margin narrative. The second key driver is margin visibility: last quarter’s gross margin of 35.04% and net margin of 2.06% set the context, but investors will look for commentary around cost components (labor, maintenance, and vehicle/equipment expenses) and any offsets from pricing and efficiency. The third driver is forward guidance tone: a confident outlook for the March quarter and beyond—tied to contracted pricing, route optimization gains, and program stability in Resource Solutions—could reinforce consensus assumptions and sustain investor appetite. Any signals about potential acquisition integration pacing, capital allocation priorities, or timing of bid cycles and contract renewals may also influence sentiment, and these are often pivotal for visibility on revenue and EBIT in subsequent quarters. Lastly, the stock can react to commentary on recycling commodity markets; increases in average commodity realizations would be a tailwind, while sudden declines can compress segment margins.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views currently dominate the landscape for Casella Waste Systems, Inc., with upgrades and favorable ratings concentrated in early January 2026, indicating strong confidence heading into the February 19, 2026 report. Jefferies upgraded the shares to Buy on January 7, 2026 and raised the price target to $120, underscoring expectations that revenue growth of 12.41% and EPS growth of 44.70% year-over-year are achievable given consistent execution in core operations and continued pricing traction. Data from the same period also reflects an average rating of overweight and a mean price target of $115.33, consistent with a supportive sell-side backdrop.

The majority bullish stance rests on several points that align with the company’s disclosed forecasts. First, revenue visibility appears adequate against the $470.90 million projection, supported by the large contracted base in Solid Waste and the operational leverage potential in Resource Solutions. Second, the degree of expected EPS accretion—up 44.70% year-over-year—signals that margin preservation and cost efficiencies are likely to be recognized in reported results, which tends to reduce earnings risk premia in the near term. Third, EBIT progression (up 21.47% year-over-year to $34.63 million) is consistent with improved throughput and cost discipline, which analysts interpret as validation that internal programs and pricing can offset inflationary noise.

Jefferies’ upgrade reflects a constructive view on how the company is balancing price and cost—alongside contract cadence—to support better aggregate earnings quality. The previous quarter’s outperformance versus estimates, including upside in revenue and EPS, contributes to the confidence that current-quarter targets can be met or exceeded. Analysts are also focusing on the earnings mix, watching how incremental dollars in Resource Solutions drop through to EBIT and EPS as programs scale, with evidence to date indicating supportive unit economics. Put together, the ratio of bullish to bearish views from early 2026 commentary is skewed in favor of the bulls; investor updates from this time frame show bullish opinions outnumbering bearish ones meaningfully, and the aggregated stance implies expectations for a constructive print and carefully managed guidance thereafter.

Overall, the market conversation around Casella Waste Systems, Inc. going into the February 19, 2026 Post Market release is framed by three pillars—growth, margin stability, and mix quality—and the preponderance of analyst commentary remains aligned with these as the primary levers for valuation in the upcoming quarter. With consensus forecasting revenue of $470.90 million, EBIT of $34.63 million, and EPS of $0.23, the company’s ability to deliver within or above these ranges, while reinforcing margin discipline, is seen as the central validator of the current bullish posture.