Abstract

Fluor Corporation will report its quarterly results on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market; consensus points to a year-over-year revenue decline with EPS compression, while investors will watch for progress on execution, margin stabilization, and new award momentum as the company updates on its operating trajectory.

Market Forecast

Consensus for this quarter anticipates revenue of $4.25 billion, implying a 3.86% year-over-year decline, with adjusted EPS estimated at $0.34, a 55.72% year-over-year decrease; EBIT is projected at $113.71 million, down 8.45% year-over-year. Forecasts for gross margin and net profit margin were not available in the dataset used here.

Urban Solutions remains the core driver by scale, and recent commercial momentum—such as being selected to lead the bankable feasibility study for the Donlin Gold project in Alaska—underscores continued pipeline conversion potential into medium-term revenue. Mission Solutions is positioned as a steady contributor with $0.76 billion last quarter; Urban Solutions carried the largest revenue base at $2.34 billion, with segment-level year-over-year details not provided in the available breakdown.

Last Quarter Review

Fluor Corporation’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $3.37 billion, a 17.73% year-over-year decline, with a gross profit margin of -13.33%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the company’s shareholders of $0.70 billion, a net profit margin of -20.69%, and adjusted EPS of $0.68, up 33.33% year-over-year.

One notable highlight was operating performance that trended better on an adjusted basis: EBIT rose to $144.00 million year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.68 exceeded the prior estimate by $0.23 per share. By segment, Urban Solutions contributed $2.34 billion (approximately 69.57% of total revenue), Mission Solutions $0.76 billion, Energy Solutions $0.26 billion, and Other $2.00 million; segment year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed in the dataset referenced.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Urban Solutions: scale-led revenue, execution pacing, and margin sensitivity

This segment is expected to remain the largest swing factor for this quarter’s top line and operating narrative given its 69.57% contribution last quarter. The key variable is execution pacing on ongoing projects relative to scheduled milestones, which tends to influence quarterly revenue recognition and the mix of high- versus low-margin work flowing through cost-of-completion accounting. With a recent award signal such as Fluor Corporation’s selection to lead the bankable feasibility study for the Donlin Gold project in Alaska, investors will be watching for commentary on how new wins translate into backlog growth and how quickly that backlog converts to revenue over the next several quarters; the study itself should add to medium-term visibility, though immediate revenue impact is likely limited to early-phase services. Margins in Urban Solutions can be sensitive to project-specific dynamics—any incremental contingencies, reforecasts, or cost controls will be closely scrutinized, particularly in light of last quarter’s negative GAAP margin backdrop even as adjusted EBIT trended positively.

Operationally, the short-term focus is on whether gross margin normalizes from the prior quarter’s negative print as project execution stabilizes, and whether management maintains discipline on risk-adjusted bidding for new work to protect future margin profile. Given the outsized revenue base, even moderate margin shifts here can drive disproportionate movements in consolidated profitability and cash generation. Investors are likely to look for qualitative guardrails in management’s update around backlog quality, claim recoveries or settlements, and the cadence of closeout phases versus ramp-up phases across the portfolio.

Mission Solutions: dependable mix, visibility into earnings, and incremental upside potential

Mission Solutions contributed $0.76 billion last quarter and historically provides steadier revenue flow, which can help balance variability inherent in large commercial projects. The quarter’s expectations hinge on continuity of funded work and the timing of task orders, with potential for incremental upside if award activity accelerated late in the period or if execution delivered favorable productivity relative to plan. The mix within Mission Solutions typically carries a distinct margin profile compared with Urban Solutions, which means small positive surprises in utilization or scheduling can translate to a clearer pass-through to adjusted EBIT and EPS.

For this quarter, the segment’s role is likely to be more about stabilizing the consolidated earnings profile rather than swinging results outright. Watchers will focus on whether performance maintains the year-end momentum implied by the prior quarter’s positive adjusted EPS delivery, and whether management signals any changes to anticipated win rates or delivery schedules that could reshape near-term revenue phasing. On balance, Mission Solutions is positioned to support adjusted profitability in the quarter, although it is less likely to offset any large GAAP adjustments, should they arise, tied to project-specific factors elsewhere.

Stock-price swing factors: GAAP vs adjusted gap, cash conversion, and bookings vs burn

The prior quarter’s contrast—negative GAAP net margin and net loss alongside positive adjusted EPS and EBIT—puts the spotlight on the bridge between GAAP and adjusted metrics this quarter. Investors will parse any identification of unusual items, re-estimates, or non-cash charges that could widen or narrow the gap between GAAP net income and adjusted EPS. Given consensus expects this quarter’s adjusted EPS at $0.34, down 55.72% year-over-year, messaging around the sustainability of adjusted margins and drivers of the year-over-year compression will be central to how shares react in pre-market trading and throughout the session.

Cash flow and working capital dynamics remain another focal area as the company advances large, multi-year projects. The alignment between earnings and cash generation—particularly whether milestone billings, collections, and advances keep pace with cost recognition—will influence investor confidence in the trajectory of balance-sheet strength and future capital deployment options. Bookings versus revenue burn also matters: updates on new awards, notice-to-proceed timing, and overall backlog direction can meaningfully shape expectations for revenue visibility into subsequent quarters, with a constructive book-to-bill trajectory offering a counterbalance to near-term EPS pressure.

Finally, segment mix may influence consolidated margin math this quarter. If revenue skews toward lower-risk services work, adjusted EBIT may prove relatively resilient even if top line lands near the $4.25 billion consensus. Conversely, if high-revenue but lower-margin phases dominate, or if additional project re-estimates surface, the adjusted margin could be constrained and GAAP results may again diverge from adjusted trends. The degree to which management communicates guardrails around potential variability will likely be a determinant of post-release sentiment.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of institutional commentary in the eligible period is neutral. Within the January 1, 2026 to February 10, 2026 window, Bank of America Securities maintained a Hold rating on Fluor Corporation and adjusted its price target to $47.50, indicating a cautious stance heading into the print. Complementing this, a contemporaneous readout of aggregated sell-side views highlighted an average rating tilted toward overweight with a mean price target of $50.56, yet the direct rating action in the window remained neutral, underscoring restrained near-term expectations.

Under the neutral view, the quarter is framed as a mixed setup: consensus top line of $4.25 billion implies a 3.86% year-over-year decline and adjusted EPS of $0.34 implies a 55.72% decline, while EBIT of $113.71 million is projected to dip 8.45% year-over-year. Analysts with this stance emphasize that last quarter’s positive adjusted metrics—EBIT of $144.00 million and adjusted EPS of $0.68—did not prevent a large GAAP loss, so the spotlight is on whether the company can demonstrate margin normalization and a narrower GAAP-to-adjusted gap. The neutral perspective expects incremental progress rather than a step-change: better clarity on project risk management, steadier gross margin prints, and confirmation of backlog health could support a more constructive trajectory, but the burden of proof remains on consistent execution and clean quarterly bridges.

The neutral camp also points to revenue mix and operating leverage as key determinants for valuation recalibration. If Urban Solutions continues to dominate revenue while demonstrating improving cost control and predictable milestone delivery, confidence in medium-term adjusted margin targets should strengthen, even if the current quarter shows year-over-year pressure. Conversely, any re-emergence of project-specific headwinds would reinforce the measured approach reflected in Hold ratings. In that context, recent commercial signals—such as Fluor Corporation’s selection to lead the Donlin Gold feasibility study—are viewed as supportive to mid-cycle earnings power without necessarily displacing the conservative near-term posture on this specific quarter’s print.

In summary, the majority neutral view expects a results day defined by the quality of the margin narrative and the clarity of the GAAP-to-adjusted bridge, rather than by headline revenue alone. Confirming steady execution in Urban Solutions and continued stability in Mission Solutions, alongside credible commentary on awards and backlog conversion, would likely be sufficient to sustain current ratings and targets, while material deviations in margins or the emergence of significant new charges would justify the ongoing caution reflected in neutral stances.