I have consistently promoted Warren Buffett's value investing philosophy. Over the past decade, I have attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, USA seven times, introducing value investing principles to A股 investors. Encouragingly, value investing is gradually gaining wider acceptance in the A-share market, with increasing recognition that sustainable returns come from medium-to-long-term holdings of quality companies or funds, while chasing rallies and frequent trading often lead to losses, particularly for retail investors.
Simultaneously, the A-share market remains less mature than the US stock market. Retail investors account for over 50% of market capital but contribute 70-80% of trading volume. This necessitates adapting value investing to local market characteristics. My concept of "value investing with Chinese characteristics" encompasses two key aspects.
First, investors should implement medium-term tactical positioning aligned with the A-share market's high volatility through position management. Identify undervalued stocks and await value realization, but take profits when valuations become excessive. Avoid chasing overheated sectors to prevent being trapped at peaks. Buffett's adage - "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - proves particularly relevant in A-shares.
Recent gold price volatility illustrates this principle: rapid appreciation to record highs above $5,600/oz attracted speculative buying, followed by a sharp correction to around $4,400/oz that triggered panic selling. The subsequent rebound above $5,000/oz demonstrates that overcoming emotional extremes forms the foundation of successful investing.
Second, policy interpretation remains crucial, encompassing both macroeconomic and industry-specific measures. Focus research and allocation on policy-supported sectors while avoiding restricted industries. This pragmatic approach enables more effective value investing implementation than mechanical replication of Buffett's methodology.
Berkshire Hathaway achieved approximately 55,000-fold growth over sixty years with 19.9% annualized returns, demonstrating compound interest power. Consistent moderate returns outperform sporadic high gains, as evidenced by the rarity of investors sustaining 100% returns over three years despite numerous instances of 300% annual gains.
Amid evolving long-term bull market conditions, maintaining Chinese-characteristic value investing principles proves essential - avoiding euphoria during rallies and despair during declines. Recent overheating signals included 17 consecutive positive sessions, nearly ¥4 trillion daily turnover, and record margin debt exceeding ¥2.6 trillion. Subsequent market adjustments typically create new entry opportunities.
Fundamentally, gold's long-term appreciation drivers include soaring US government debt, dollar oversupply, de-dollarization trends, and eroding confidence in dollar credibility. The precious metal's surge aligns with global de-dollarization progress.
At Shanghai's Chief Economists Forum, consensus emerged that the dollar's share in international payments and reserves will gradually decline despite being a prolonged process. Multiple nations are reducing US Treasury holdings while accumulating gold reserves, reflecting de-dollarization advancement.
Trump administration policies have exacerbated global instability, undermining US government credibility. Last year's 43-day government shutdown over debt ceiling disputes, following a 35-day shutdown during Trump's previous term, combined with prolonged quantitative easing, fuels dollar depreciation expectations and motivates institutional gold accumulation as hedge.
Consequently, I maintain long-term bullish views on gold and silver, with market movements validating this perspective despite short-term fluctuations. Investors should consider precious metals as strategic allocations rather than focusing on temporary volatility.
My recommended 20% portfolio allocation to gold-related assets continues demonstrating effectiveness in hedging volatility risks and enhancing risk-adjusted returns. During recent gold appreciation phases, both Gold ETFs and gold-themed funds attracted investor interest, though they differ significantly.
Gold ETFs track bullion prices through derivative instruments, while gold-themed funds invest in mining companies and industry participants. The latter face additional equity market influences, potentially declining during broader market corrections despite general correlation with gold prices. Investors should select based on risk tolerance, recognizing amplified NAV fluctuations during gold price volatility.
As anticipated, the Federal Reserve maintained benchmark rates at 3.5-3.75% during its January 29 meeting, pausing after three consecutive 2023 cuts. This decision reflects subdued job growth, stabilizing unemployment, and reflation risks, receiving broad FOMC support.
Notably, Powell's term concludes in May, with Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as successor. Despite previous hawkish leanings, Warsh's recent policy shifts and Trump affiliation suggest probable rate cuts post-appointment, potentially totaling 50 basis points or more in 2026. Concurrent balance sheet reduction measures, involving Treasury sales to drain liquidity, initially pressured gold prices.
However, investors needn't overreact. The Fed's $2+ trillion balance sheet reduction over two years minimally impacted US stocks or altered gold's structural bull market. As Trump's appointee, Warsh may compromise Fed independence, potentially weakening the dollar after temporary rebounds.
Industrially, the fourth technological revolution centered on AI advancement continues unfolding. China's technology sector demonstrated resilience through 2025 under dual AI wave and indigenous innovation drivers, sustaining upward trajectory despite recent sentiment-driven corrections.
The upcoming Year of the Horse should witness AI industry maturation through full-chain development, proprietary technology breakthroughs, and scaled application deployment. Discussions with fellow investment professionals confirm consensus that AI's traditional industry transformation remains nascent, with humanoid robotics and intelligent agents representing promising "AI+consumption" applications.
Early-stage industry bubbles aren't entirely negative, potentially attracting capital to nurture great companies despite temporary valuation dislocations. Post-2000 tech bubble consolidation still yielded Microsoft, Amazon and Google over two decades, suggesting current AI revolution may similarly produce industry leaders.
Approaching the Spring Festival, the perennial "stocks versus cash" debate remains relevant. The determining factor lies in portfolio composition: investors holding quality stocks or funds may maintain positions, as holiday social interactions could amplify wealth effect and stimulate post-holiday market participation.
Conversely, positions in overextended securities lacking fundamental support warrant profit-taking to mitigate holiday accumulation of uncertainty risks. Overall, the Year of the Horse presents abundant opportunities for investors practicing Chinese-characteristic value investing, focusing on economic transformation themes through quality holdings while disregarding short-term noise.