**Gold Market Trend Analysis:**
On September 8th, gold market fundamentals: Last Friday's weak U.S. employment data further heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing fresh momentum to gold's strong rally. Gold prices came within cents of reaching $3,600 per ounce. Spot gold surged 1.4% to $3,596.55 per ounce, after touching a record high of $3,599.89, marking the strongest weekly gain in nearly four months. Geopolitical tensions may continue supporting higher gold prices this week, as Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected Putin's invitation for a Moscow meeting, stating that Putin "can come to Kyiv." Traders are currently betting on a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Goldman Sachs Group indicated that gold prices could potentially rise to nearly $5,000 per ounce if the Federal Reserve's credibility is damaged and investors convert a small portion of U.S. Treasuries into gold.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** From a chart perspective, the daily timeframe shows K-lines continuing to maintain a favorable oscillating upward trend along short-term moving averages. On the 4-hour chart, gold completed a high-level consolidation correction before initiating a second upward surge. The hourly timeframe currently shows relatively weak technical patterns, yet gold still lacks any significant unilateral decline trend, with bulls remaining relatively strong. This week we continue maintaining a buy-on-dips strategy. Given that prices touched the 3600 level before Friday's close, if bulls continue pushing higher this week, the 3600 level will struggle to resist the bullish momentum, and breaking above 3600 is inevitable. However, this process may require some pullback consolidation before the next surge. This week we continue focusing on buying dips, as the bullish trend remains primary. Lower support levels to watch include 3558-63 for short-term support and 3538-45 for key support. The short-term bullish/bearish dividing line has moved up to the 3510 level. Maintaining stability above 3530 keeps the buy-on-dips rhythm unchanged, with counter-trend short positions best avoided. Overall, today's gold short-term strategy suggests buying on dips as primary approach, with selling on rallies as secondary. Upper resistance focuses on 3600-3610, while lower support centers on 3570-3560.
**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**
**Oil Market Fundamentals:** Oil prices declined Friday as weak U.S. employment data undermined energy demand prospects, while market expectations that OPEC+ will further increase production at this weekend's meeting amplified oversupply risks. Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 per barrel, down 2.22%; U.S. crude futures settled at $61.87, declining 2.54%. This marks the third consecutive day of oil price declines, reflecting intensifying market concerns about supply-demand balance. Market surveys indicate OPEC+ will convene Sunday, with eight member countries and major producers including Russia discussing whether to further increase production in October. If this decision materializes, OPEC+ would lift production cuts of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day more than a year ahead of schedule, representing 1.6% of global demand. Current oil price movements are clearly constrained by supply-demand expectation dynamics. On one hand, if OPEC+ prematurely relaxes production cuts, supply pressure will increase; on the other hand, U.S. efforts to reduce Russian exports may create new supply gaps. Oil market uncertainty will likely intensify further in the short term, with price volatility expected to persist.
**Oil Technical Analysis:** From the daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish candle closures halted, a narrow-range bottom formation emerged, with oil prices gradually crossing above smaller timeframe moving averages, though overall pressure remains. The medium-term subjective trend points downward. From a momentum standpoint, MACD indicators formed a golden cross below the zero line, signaling weakening downward momentum, though medium-term oil trends will likely maintain higher downside probability. Short-term (1H) movements show continued significant declines, with oil prices touching near 62.40. Moving average systems suppress price rebounds in bearish alignment, keeping short-term objective trend direction unchanged downward. MACD indicators show bearish crossover below zero, with bearish momentum remaining strong, suggesting today's oil movements will likely continue declining. Overall, today's oil strategy recommends selling on rallies as primary approach, with buying on dips as secondary. Upper resistance focuses on 63.5-64.5, while lower support centers on 61.0-60.0.