One of the key US inflation indicators, the Producer Price Index (PPI), showed a month-on-month increase in September, signaling a resurgence in inflationary pressures. Rising energy and food prices emerged as the primary drivers, adding new considerations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday revealed that the PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, matching expectations, following a 0.1% decline in August. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2% rise and compared to a 0.1% drop in the previous month.
On an annual basis, the PPI climbed 2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the 2.6% forecast and unchanged from the prior reading. The core PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, missing the 2.7% estimate and down from 2.9% previously.
Originally scheduled for release on October 16, the report was delayed due to the government shutdown. Notably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not announce a release date for October's PPI in Tuesday's report.
The data comes a month after September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation running cooler than expected. Meanwhile, the wholesale price figures suggest businesses may be limiting price increases.
Energy Leads Commodity Price Surge US wholesale goods prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in September, with gasoline costs accounting for 60% of the increase. The data highlights that energy price volatility remains a dominant factor driving wholesale inflation.
In contrast, service costs remained flat month-on-month in September after declining in August, indicating that wholesale price pressures are primarily concentrated in the goods sector.
Within services categories, margins for machinery and equipment wholesalers declined, while food wholesalers saw improved margins. Additionally, costs for airline passenger services increased.
This divergence reflects varying cost-pass-through capabilities and pricing power across different service industries.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data also suggests businesses may be restraining price hikes to compensate for higher import tariffs, likely due to concerns that significant cost increases could drive away customers.