Inventory normalization, tariff reduction, and IPO acceleration
Open Source Securities suggests that as inventory destocking nears completion, tariff costs decline, and revenue growth resumes, leading cross-border e-commerce companies are poised for a sustained recovery in profitability. Enterprises with mature brand operations and global replication capabilities are likely to capture market share as industry supply consolidates. Branding represents the long-term value upgrade path for the sector. With AI rapidly permeating traffic distribution and full-chain operations, it is expected to accelerate growth and widen competitive differentiation. The firm favors companies with strong brand moats and a first-mover advantage in AI and digital intelligence.
Since the start of 2025, major players have proactively reduced procurement and inventory levels, pushing the industry into the latter stages of destocking. Improved inventory structures have alleviated impairment pressures and enhanced expense ratios. Additionally, cross-border e-commerce customs tariffs saw a notable year-over-year decline in 2026, and some firms have received tariff rebates, further easing tax burdens. The brokerage believes that with inventory reduction nearly complete, lower tariff costs, and recovering revenues, the profitability of leading cross-border e-commerce firms is set to improve. Furthermore, multiple companies accelerated their IPO processes in the second half of 2026. Firms such as Qian'an Technology, Yangteng Innovation, Zhiyan Technology, Aolei Technology, and Maijin Technology are showing high revenue growth and improving profitability, validating their business models and growth trajectories. As a result, the cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to see a simultaneous rise in both industry sentiment and investor attention.
Branding becomes the long-term industry development theme
Three key factors—shifting consumer demand, intensifying homogeneous competition, and rising compliance costs—are collectively driving the industry away from low-price, bulk-listing growth models toward high-quality, brand-driven development. Leading companies have already established multi-brand portfolios and omnichannel distribution networks. Mid-tier players with broad product catalogs are accelerating their transition to boutique brands, while original brand manufacturers are moving swiftly toward IPOs, expanding the branding ecosystem. The brokerage asserts that firms with proven brand management systems and global replication capabilities are best positioned to capture market share as industry supply consolidates.
AI empowers the entire value chain, driving high-quality development
On the platform traffic side, AI builds upon traditional search and recommendation engines by adding intent understanding and intelligent shopping guidance layers. This upgrades product discovery from keyword matching to contextual, personalized experiences, boosting user dwell time, ad click-through rates, and conversion rates. Cross-border sellers benefit from both traffic growth and enhanced ad efficiency. On the operational side, AI tools have evolved from single-point applications like copywriting and image generation to full-chain intelligent solutions covering product selection, content creation, ad placement, customer service, and supply chain forecasting. Leading sellers have already deployed end-to-end AI agents. The value of AI agents extends beyond cost reduction and efficiency gains; they also enhance scalability. AI tools significantly improve operational efficiency and content output while reducing labor costs. They also modularize and automate processes like product selection, content creation, ad testing, and user management, freeing up capacity for expansion into new categories and regions. At the same time, AI diminishes the competitive advantage of pure traffic-driven marketing, amplifying the core value of product strength, user reputation, and fulfillment capabilities. This intensifies differentiation among brands, with boutique brands and digitally advanced sellers likely to extend their competitive lead.
Risk warnings
Macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in tariffs and platform policies, intensifying competition, and slower-than-expected expansion are all potential risks.