The China Bulk Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for September 2026 came in at 137.6 points, up 4.1% from the previous month and 22.9% higher year-on-year, according to data released on October 5 by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) based on a joint survey conducted with the Bulk Commodity Circulation Branch of the CFLP and Shanghai Steel Union, among other institutions.
Looking at the index performance, the traditional peak season for production and construction has arrived, major projects are being implemented at a faster pace, and manufacturing production and market demand continue to improve, all of which have further lifted the prosperity level of the bulk commodity market and laid a solid foundation for the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter.
However, external imported risks remain relatively high at present, raw material prices in some industries are rising rapidly, and downstream enterprises are facing increased pressure in production and operations. To consolidate the positive market momentum, it is still necessary to strengthen monitoring of key bulk commodity market operations, enhance risk prevention and resolution capabilities, and further unleash the endogenous drivers of economic growth.
By sector: The energy price index surged significantly, standing at 130.7 points, up 14.8% month-on-month and 33.4% year-on-year. The chemical price index climbed rapidly to 136.6 points, up 13.7% month-on-month and 36.6% year-on-year. The non-ferrous price index extended its gains to 167.0 points, up 1.6% month-on-month and 26.7% year-on-year. The ferrous price index edged up 0.5% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year to 80.7 points. The mineral price index rebounded from declines to 66.6 points, up 0.3% month-on-month but down 5.4% year-on-year. The agricultural price index recovered slightly to 95.6 points, up 0.2% month-on-month but down 1.2% year-on-year.
By commodity: Among the 50 bulk commodities closely monitored by the CFLP, 38 commodities (76%) saw price increases in September compared with the previous month, 11 commodities (22%) recorded price declines, and 1 commodity (2%) remained flat. The top three gainers this month were methanol, ethylene glycol, and coke, with month-on-month increases of 39.5%, 24.8%, and 20.4% respectively. The top three decliners were lithium carbonate, refined tin, and corrugated paper, with month-on-month drops of 8.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4% respectively.
Comparing domestic and international indices: The CBPI trend was broadly consistent with last month's PPI and CPI. In August, PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with producer goods prices up 0.4% and consumer goods prices up 0.2%. In August, CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with food prices up 0.4% and non-food prices up 0.3%. The CBPI moved in line with the S&P GSCI but diverged somewhat from the CRB. Amid repeated tensions in the Middle East and the interplay between Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and U.S.-Iran consultations, international energy and chemical bulk commodity prices fluctuated upward. As inflationary pressures mounted and international energy prices rose, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate hikes after a three-year pause, weighing on global base metal prices. China and the United States completed their eighth round of economic and trade consultations and reached a reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement worth approximately $30 billion, covering agricultural products, coal, and other bulk commodities, which is conducive to stabilizing related trade and market expectations.