With only 3 trading days left for A-shares before the National Day holiday, a review of this week's market performance shows that sectors such as real estate, beauty care, and social services led the gains. Looking ahead, institutions believe the market focus may remain on structural, rotation-based repair, and it will still be necessary to continuously track changes in overseas interest rates, the sustainability of falling oil prices, and external disturbances from the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of October. In terms of sector allocation, institutions believe that the conditions for the second wave of the tech sector rally may already be gradually in place, and they are bullish on opportunities in AI hardware and mid-to-downstream AI directions. They suggest using dividend assets as the base allocation, while directions such as power grids, energy storage, building materials, and construction machinery that benefit from policy support are also worth watching.
Institutional Outlook on Future Investment
China Galaxy Securities: Market Pattern May Still Be Structural, Rotation-Based Repair
Looking ahead to after the holiday, the factors that previously suppressed market activity have eased somewhat, and market expectations are expected to gradually recover. However, there are many overseas disturbing factors, and the market pattern may still be structural, rotation-based repair. In terms of allocation, focus on three main lines: first, tech growth directions such as semiconductors and optical communications; second, policies continue to promote the accelerated implementation of major projects and the formation of physical work volumes, with attention to power grids, energy storage, building materials, construction machinery, and other links; third, use dividend assets as the base allocation, with attention to finance, utilities, coal, and other sectors.
Soochow Securities: AI Hardware Direction Remains an Important Handle for Obtaining Excess Returns
Currently, the market has entered a sentiment repair phase, and the rebound rally will continue. If subsequent positive news emerges at the AI and macro levels, the rebound expectations can be revised upward. In terms of allocation, the AI hardware direction remains an important handle for obtaining excess returns, with attention to domestic computing power and the semiconductor industry chain. In addition, with the development of the AI industry and the continuous increase in the penetration rate of large models, it is necessary to attach importance to opportunities in the mid-to-downstream AI sectors.
Guosen Securities: Conditions for the Second Wave of the Tech Sector Rally May Be Gradually in Place
Under the resonance of factors such as the improvement of the global liquidity environment and catalysis from new industry narratives, the tech sector has stabilized and rebounded since mid-September. Drawing on historical experience, the conditions for the second wave of the tech sector rally may already be gradually in place. If the oil price center continues to move downward, Federal Reserve tightening expectations ease, and the AI revenue growth rate of overseas cloud vendors continues to maintain high growth, the rebound space may be considerable. Under the resonance of multiple positive factors, the tech sector rebound is expected to drive the overall market upward.
Huatai-PineBridge Fund: Market Expected to Return to Earnings-Driven Main Line
In the medium term, listed company earnings data in 2026 are expected to continue to recover, the domestic policy environment remains positive, exports continue to show high growth, and domestic demand data such as consumption and investment are expected to show marginal improvement. Subsequently, driven by proactive policies, the market may return to the earnings-driven main line, and value styles such as dividends, consumption, and finance may usher in a phased balance.
Fullgoal Fund: Continue to Track External Disturbing Factors
It will still be necessary to continuously track changes in overseas interest rates, the sustainability of falling oil prices, and external disturbances from the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of October. In terms of sector allocation, the AI tech direction should focus on optical communications, PCBs, electronic cloth, copper-clad laminates, domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and other directions with high visibility in orders and performance, as well as AI application-side sectors with relatively low valuations. In the cyclical resource products direction, non-ferrous metal assets with strategic resource gaming attributes have prominent cost-effectiveness after the Federal Reserve's rate hike is implemented.
China Universal Fund: Extreme Rotation Pattern in Market Expected to Converge
The recent extreme rotation in the market may not be the norm, and it is expected to converge subsequently based on changes in macro and industry expectations: on the one hand, macro uncertainty is declining, and several important observation points affecting the Federal Reserve's decisions are not far away, which may help bridge market differences; on the other hand, with Anthropic's listing approaching and a new round of listed company earnings season about to arrive, it is expected to provide clearer guidance for next year's industry expectations.
Major Events Affecting Future Investment
People's Bank of China: Increase Counter-Cyclical Adjustment Intensity
The People's Bank of China announced on September 24 that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical adjustment intensity, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in both aggregate and structural aspects, strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices.
September PMI to Be Released
On September 30, China's September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released. Previously in August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the prosperity level.
US August Inflation Index to Be Released Next Week
At 9:30 Beijing time on September 30, the PCE price index, regarded as "the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator," will be released. This becomes important reference data affecting the Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision. If the August PCE price index strengthens further, it may cause the market to increase bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
OpenAI to Hold Developer Conference
On September 29 local time, OpenAI will hold its 2026 Developer Conference, and company CEO Sam Altman will deliver a keynote speech at 10 a.m. local time, with related content highly anticipated.