According to the latest perspective from Freda Duan, a partner at the top-tier Silicon Valley tech investment fund Altimeter Capital, while programming has become the strongest AI application vertical to date, Excel (spreadsheets) possesses similar explosive potential, bolstered by a user base in the billions, and is poised to become the next true "super vertical" for AI. This trend has already triggered substantive actions from industry giants. Public information indicates that OpenAI and Anthropic are actively expanding into the realm of spreadsheets and productivity workflows. Market analysis suggests that spreadsheets not only have a larger potential Total Addressable Market (TAM) than programming but also, due to their nature as an "abstraction layer" for application software, hold the potential to reshape the entire software industry. Investors are closely watching for this logic to repeat itself. Taking programming as an example, this field has already spawned four companies with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeding $1 billion, with at least seven others rapidly surpassing the $100 million ARR mark. If Excel can replicate the "product-led growth" model seen in programming, its impact on the valuation of the SaaS and application software markets would be transformative.

The core of this investment thesis lies in the fact that spreadsheets are not just an end-market but a strategic entry point capable of penetrating finance, CRM, and internal tool development. Their user base and commercialization path show a remarkable similarity to the programming domain. **The Lesson from Programming: Product-Led, Efficient Expansion** Programming has become the strongest AI application vertical due to three rare attributes: a massive potential market of approximately $2 trillion (according to ChatGPT data), a natural advantage for entering adjacent use cases, and a product-led go-to-market strategy (GTM) that requires no traditional sales and marketing intervention. Structurally, the programming market is fundamentally different from sectors like healthcare, real estate, or finance, which involve complex corporate procurement processes. Developers can quickly identify high-quality tools and often have direct influence over tool approval or expense reimbursement. As long as a tool enhances efficiency, companies are generally not sensitive to the marginal cost for an individual developer. This "bottom-up" dissemination model allows a strong product to spread rapidly with minimal sales costs. **Beyond Coding: The Billion-User Spreadsheet Market** Excel exhibits characteristics very similar to the programming vertical but on an even larger scale. According to Google Workspace data for 2025, its paying customers exceed 11 million, with a user base of over 3 billion. A report from Kingsoft Office (WPS Office) in December 2024 indicated global monthly active devices reached 632 million, while Microsoft has historically disclosed approximately 1.2 billion Office users. A composite estimate suggests the global monthly active spreadsheet user community is around 1.5 to 1.6 billion. This vast user base implies a huge potential market. Of the roughly $1 trillion software industry, application software accounts for about 50%, and a significant portion of this—including CRM, Airtable, Smartsheet, and various financial, operational, and analytical tools—can essentially be viewed as massive "abstraction layers" on top of Excel. If native AI makes Excel programmable, the opportunity would extend beyond individual products like Microsoft Office or Google Workspace, with competitive boundaries expanding to application creation itself. **The Financial Sector: A High-Value Natural Entry Point** In terms of commercialization, the financial industry is seen as the logical starting point for this domain, which is also a key focus for Anthropic and OpenAI. The financial sector boasts extremely high profit per employee and a strong willingness to pay for productivity tools. Furthermore, analysts often possess budget authority similar to developers, and a clear Return on Investment (ROI) enables products to effectively sell themselves. From a user density perspective, there are over 6.7 million workers in the US financial services and insurance industry. Globally, the number of people engaged in broad financial functions like Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), accounting, auditing, and treasury management is approximately 150 million. This means that out of the 1.55 billion spreadsheet users, about 10% belong to this high-value, easily monetizable segment, providing an excellent initial beachhead for AI-powered Excel tools. As proven in the programming realm, a self-service, workflow-native tool with a large surface area can expand faster than almost any other software category.