Abstract

S&P Global will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates consensus revenue and EPS forecasts, last quarter’s actuals, segment dynamics, and institutional commentary to frame the likely outcome and the key stock drivers.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of USD 3.90 billion, adjusted EBIT of USD 1.85 billion, and adjusted EPS of USD 4.32, with year-over-year growth of 11.38%, 19.69%, and 24.18%, respectively; margin expectations embed a gross profit margin near last quarter’s 71.17% and a net profit margin contextually around last quarter’s 30.25%. The main businesses are expected to benefit from sustained debt issuance and data/analytics demand, while ratings issuance patterns and index-linked fees frame the near-term trajectory. The most promising segment remains S&P Global Ratings, supported by issuance recovery; last quarter revenue was USD 1.24 billion with a visible rebound.

Last Quarter Review

S&P Global delivered revenue of USD 3.89 billion, a gross profit margin of 71.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 1.18 billion, a net profit margin of 30.25%, and adjusted EPS of USD 4.73, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 21.59% and revenue growth of 8.76%. The quarter-over-quarter net profit rose by 9.70%, aided by healthy conversion of top-line to bottom-line on disciplined cost control and favorable mix. Main business highlights included S&P Global Ratings revenue of USD 1.24 billion, Market Intelligence revenue of USD 1.24 billion, Commodity Insights revenue of USD 0.56 billion, S&P Dow Jones Indices revenue of USD 0.46 billion, and Mobility revenue of USD 0.45 billion, reflecting broad-based contribution and improving issuance trends.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Ratings Franchise

The ratings franchise is positioned to reflect issuance normalization in investment-grade, high-yield, and structured credit, with a carryover from late-2025 activity into the current quarter. Revenue in the last reported quarter reached USD 1.24 billion, and forecasts imply continued momentum as refinancing needs and opportunistic issuance align with stabilized rate expectations. The principal variables this quarter are the level and mix of new issuance, resi/CMBS pipeline conversion, and the pace of sovereign and public finance activity. If primary market volumes sustain their recent cadence, fee capture should remain healthy, and ancillary transaction services can augment results. A softening in issuance due to rate volatility or macro caution would affect throughput, but diversified fee streams and surveillance revenues provide a partial buffer. Monitoring January issuance run rates and pipeline commentary will be essential for corroborating the expected uplift in segment profitability and for gauging fee-rate integrity against competitive dynamics.

Market Intelligence and Data Analytics

Market Intelligence benefits from multi-year secular demand for data, workflow analytics, and desktop solutions across corporates, banks, and investment managers. With last quarter revenue of USD 1.24 billion, this segment is poised to contribute steady, subscription-driven growth supported by renewals, upsells, and price actions. Near-term growth drivers include integration synergies, content expansion, and increased usage in private markets diligence and risk analytics. The quarter’s key watch items are net retention, seat expansion across investment workflows, and cross-sell momentum into credit risk and ESG datasets. Any macro softness could lead to delayed expansions, but historical resilience in subscriptions and pricing supports mid- to high-single-digit growth trends, while cost discipline protects margin carry-through. A favorable mix shift toward higher-value analytics and differentiated datasets tends to sustain gross margin in the 70.00% range, reinforcing earnings durability.

Indices and Asset-Linked Revenues

S&P Dow Jones Indices revenue of USD 0.46 billion last quarter should continue to leverage assets under management tied to passive and factor strategies, along with licensing fees. Quarter performance is sensitive to average AUM levels, index-linked product flows, and reconstitution/event activity. Equities have been constructive into early 2026, supporting licensing revenues and creating potential upside if average AUM is higher than the prior quarter. The dynamic between net flows and market beta is crucial, and any reversal would temper index fees. Nonetheless, diversified index families and global reach provide a cushion, and recurring licensing visibility supports margin stability.

Commodity Insights and Mobility

Commodity Insights posted USD 0.56 billion, and Mobility posted USD 0.45 billion last quarter, reflecting ongoing demand for energy price assessments, analytics, and automotive data solutions. Commodity Insights outlook hinges on benchmark price volatility, client activity in trading and risk, and adoption of analytics subscriptions across energy transition themes. Mobility should benefit from continued OEM and supplier reliance on demand forecasting, vehicle parc analytics, and supply chain intelligence. Both segments have subscription-led profiles, providing revenue durability; pricing actions and product enhancements can lift growth in line with mid-single-digit expectations. If commodity price volatility moderates, transaction-linked activity may ease, but embedded subscriptions and strategic analytics keep the revenue base intact. For Mobility, OEM program timing, regional production variability, and data enrichment rollouts are the incremental levers for quarterly performance.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will likely focus on ratings issuance volumes, margin trajectory relative to guidance, and adjusted EPS conversion versus consensus. A beat on adjusted EPS to USD 4.32 would require either higher-than-expected ratings fees, stronger index-linked revenues from elevated AUM, or a combination of subscription resilience and operating leverage in data analytics. The gross margin context around 71.17% and net margin around 30.25% set the baseline; any positive mix shift in transaction-heavy revenues will be scrutinized for incremental margin uplift. Commentary on late-quarter issuance and early first-quarter pipeline, plus visibility on renewal rates and pricing, will influence sentiment more than isolated one-off items. The ratio between transaction revenues and subscriptions will be parsed for sustainability, as investors assess whether strong EPS growth of 24.18% year over year reflects durable operations or transient issuance spikes.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary captured in recent previews leans predominantly bullish, with most analysts expecting S&P Global to exceed or meet consensus on adjusted EPS and to deliver solid top-line growth near USD 3.90 billion. Positive views emphasize the improving credit markets backdrop, a healthy pipeline in structured finance, and resilient subscription economics in Market Intelligence, supporting EBIT growth of 19.69% year over year. Well-known covering teams highlight that the earnings setup favors upside if January issuance strength is confirmed and if index-linked revenues benefit from higher average AUM. Bulls also point to cost controls and incremental synergies as contributors to margin resilience even if revenue mix tilts more toward subscription than transaction fees. The majority view underscores that the blend of transaction recovery and subscription stability provides a favorable environment for adjusted EPS outperformance relative to the USD 4.32 mark, while caution is reserved for any late-quarter issuance softness that could cap near-term upside.