The 2026 Spring Festival holiday, spanning nine days, is set to create the longest Spring Festival movie season on record. According to Lighthouse Pro data, as of February 8th, eight films have been scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival season, including titles such as "Awakening Silence," "Pegasus 3," "Blades of the Guardians: Desert Storm," and "Boonie Bears: Forever Bears." The market dynamics for the 2026 season are anticipated to shift from the "one dominant leader with multiple strong contenders" pattern seen in 2025 back to a "multi-power competition" landscape.
Most industry insiders project the total box office revenue for the season to fall within the range of 7 to 8 billion yuan, with optimistic forecasts suggesting it could surpass 8 billion yuan. This year's lineup encompasses a wide variety of genres, including comedy, sci-fi, spy thriller, animation, and martial arts. Among them, "Pegasus 3" is widely expected by the industry to lead in both box office earnings and critical acclaim, building on the strong popularity of its predecessors. While advance ticket sales have not yet commenced, data from Maoyan Pro shows that "Pegasus 3" leads the season with 880,000 users expressing interest in watching it. "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure" and "Awakening Silence" follow in second and third place with 330,000 and 310,000 interested users respectively, solidifying these three new releases as the top anticipated films for the season.
A detailed look at the key films includes: "Pegasus 3": Once again directed by Han Han and starring Shen Teng and Yin Zheng. The lead producer is Tingdong Pictures, with a strong consortium of other producers including major domestic film companies such as Maoyan Entertainment, Damai Entertainment, Bona Film Group, China Film Group, Happy Mahua, Wanda Film, and Hengdian Films. The franchise has a strong track record, with the previous installment, "Pegasus 2," achieving a final box office of 3.361 billion yuan. It was the first to announce its placement in the Spring Festival season. "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure": A sequel to the "Panda Plan" IP, with Enlight Media listed as one of the film's producers. "Boonie Bears: Forever Bears": As part of the "Boonie Bears" IP, this series is a regular feature of the Spring Festival season. The franchise has released 11 films to date, cumulatively grossing over 8.1 billion yuan, and boasts a stable audience base, making it a major representative of family-friendly holiday films. "Awakening Silence": Directed by Zhang Yimou and starring Yi Yangqianxi, Zhu Yilong, and Song Jia. The lead producer is Damai Entertainment, which is also expected to handle primary distribution. Comparable films include other Spring Festival releases directed by Zhang Yimou, such as "Article 20" (2.429 billion yuan) and "Full River Red" (4.544 billion yuan). "Turning Blooms": Directed by Jia Ling, who also stars alongside Zhang Xiaofei and Yang Zi. The lead producer is Wanda Film, which is also expected to serve as the primary distributor. Comparable films are other directorial works by Jia Ling, like "YOLO" (3.417 billion yuan) and "Hi, Mom" (5.413 billion yuan). "Blades of the Guardians: Desert Storm": Directed by Yuen Woo-ping and starring Wu Jing, Nicholas Tse, and Jet Li. The lead producer is Damai Entertainment, also anticipated to be the primary distributor. The film is adapted from the hardcore martial arts comic of the same name created by Xu Xianzhe.
Furthermore, based on social media buzz, the documentary "Return to the Wolfpack," scheduled for a re-release on the third day of the new year, is generating significantly higher readership and discussion volumes on platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu compared to other films. Historical trends suggest that films with positive social media momentum often achieve better box office conversion, positioning "Return to the Wolfpack" as a potential dark horse for the season.
It is important to note that following the record-breaking 9.5 billion yuan box office achieved during the 2025 Spring Festival season, driven by hits like "Ne Zha 2," a high base effect has been established. This has led some investors to question whether the 2026 season can maintain similarly strong performance. However, several film industry professionals indicate that while the total box office may see a year-on-year adjustment, the market retains sufficient resilience, and top-tier films are expected to continue demonstrating strong individual earning potential.
A survey conducted by Box Office Searchlight indicates that a plurality of industry respondents (34.3%) predict the total 2026 Spring Festival box office will land between 7 and 8 billion yuan. Approximately 33.5% of respondents believe it can exceed 8 billion yuan, reflecting overall industry optimism. The 2026 season appears to be shaping up as a "one leader, multiple strong contenders" field: "Pegasus 3" leads significantly in various surveys and is viewed as the potential leader in both revenue and reception. "Awakening Silence" and "Blades of the Guardians" follow closely, forming the main box office tier. Industry professionals are generally optimistic about the revenue potential of these films, expecting 3 to 4 titles to surpass the 1 billion yuan mark, with top films potentially challenging the 3 billion yuan threshold and beyond.
Regarding the season's overall strength compared to the previous year, some analysts suggest that the 2026 lineup offers more comprehensive genre coverage—including comedy, spy thriller, action, animation, and documentary—leading to more rational competition. Supported by factors such as the longest holiday period ever, travel-home viewing trends, and strong family audience demand, the 2026 Spring Festival season is still poised for significant catalytic effect. Based on this assessment, some analysts project the total box office to fluctuate around 7.5 billion yuan.
Citing the current film slate, China Securities (CSC) maintains a positive outlook for the 2026 Spring Festival box office. They attribute the consistent record-breaking performances of the past two years to two main factors: 1) The extended holiday period in recent years (8 days in both 2024 and 2025, compared to the traditional 7 days); and 2) Increased concentration of top-tier films in the season, as its importance within the annual calendar grows, incentivizing studios to schedule their most prominent releases for this period. For instance, Enlight Media's major 2025 release, "Ne Zha: The Devil's Child Comes to the Sea," premiered during the Spring Festival and broke domestic box office records. Given 1) the early timing of the 2026 holiday, allowing for longer pre-release marketing cycles, and 2) the abundance of major IP films, CSC remains optimistic about strong box office performance for the upcoming season.
Related stocks mentioned: Maoyan Entertainment (01896): In the first half of 2025, the number of films where the company took a leading role in promotion or distribution hit a record high for the period, with several participating films achieving excellent box office results. The company was involved in the promotion, distribution, or production of 29 domestic films and 9 imported films. It served as the lead distributor for 24 films and developed 4 films, both figures representing historical highs for the period. The company is involved in producing "Pegasus 3" for the 2026 Spring Festival season. Damai Entertainment (01060): Damai Entertainment is an investment holding company under Alibaba Group primarily engaged in content production, promotion and distribution, intellectual property (IP) derivative licensing and commercial operations, cinema and entertainment event ticketing management, and internet data services. The company is involved in producing "Pegasus 3" and "Awakening Silence" for the 2026 Spring Festival season. Enlight Media (300251.SZ): The company is one of the producers of the 2026 Spring Festival film "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure." Leveraging its family entertainment appeal, this film has the potential to become one of the season's top performers.