This week, markets will focus on key U.S. economic data, Japanese political developments, and gold's battle around the $5,000 level.

The release of January's Nonfarm Payrolls report, originally scheduled for last Friday, has been postponed to Wednesday due to a partial government shutdown. The Consumer Price Index data will follow on Friday. This marks the second consecutive month that these two critical reports are published in the same week.

Market expectations point to an addition of 70,000 jobs, up from the previous 50,000, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold steady at 4.4%. However, recently released employment figures have been less optimistic, with job openings dropping to their lowest level since September 2020, indicating the impact of AI on the labor market. January's inflation rate is anticipated to decrease to 2.5% from 2.7%.

Following the Federal Reserve's January meeting, which noted that "the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilizing" and "inflation remains somewhat elevated," it is unlikely that incoming economic data will alter the Fed's cautious wait-and-see stance. The next potential interest rate adjustment may not occur until after the new Fed Chair assumes office, possibly at the June meeting. Despite this, the U.S. dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, with attention turning to potential gains for currencies like the Euro and the Australian Dollar. The European Central Bank is projected to keep rates unchanged this year, while the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised rates last week.

In the short term, a cooling-off in AI-related trading, rather than economic data or interest rate outlooks, is the primary driver of volatility in U.S. stocks. While technology stocks have underperformed over the past three months, traditional sectors such as energy, materials, industrials, and financials have led gains. This shift indicates that investors are turning towards more attractively valued small and mid-cap stocks, supporting a broader market rally and sector rotation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking through the 50,000-point milestone is a clear testament to this trend.

With earnings season largely concluded for major tech companies, a release of risk, combined with technical patterns and improved market sentiment, could pave the way for a阶段性反弹 in the Nasdaq 100 index. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on Friday suggests the index may challenge the 26,000 level and beyond.

Japan's general election has concluded, with the ruling coalition securing an absolute majority in the lower house. This outcome reinforces expectations of policy continuity, facilitating plans for宽松财政 policies, increased defense spending, and suggesting the Bank of Japan will likely proceed with only gradual interest rate hikes.

The Nikkei 225 index opened higher on Monday, reaching a historic high above 57,000 for the first time. This strong momentum is expected to continue in the near term, potentially boosting confidence in global equity markets, as evidenced by early gains in futures for the three major U.S. indices. The USD/JPY pair held near 157, and a weaker yen may sustain carry trade enthusiasm, contributing to stability in global financial markets. However, technical resistance near the 160-162 area and potential intervention risks from the Bank of Japan warrant caution.

Beyond the immediate optimism, concerns regarding Japan's government debt and long-term fiscal sustainability persist, indicating that challenges for its capital markets are far from over.

Despite a sharp pullback of over 20% in a short period, the fundamental drivers for gold's medium to long-term upward trend remain intact. These include expectations of U.S. rate cuts, geopolitical risks, asset allocation demand, and de-dollarization trends.

However, with speculative fervor having notably diminished, gold prices may enter a phase of high-level consolidation in the short term. A failure to break above the 5050/5090 resistance zone could lead to a retest of support near 4800. Conversely, a break above 5140 would target a renewed challenge of the all-time high.

While the near-term market sentiment and price direction lack clarity, high volatility is expected to persist. Gold's one-week implied volatility stands at 38.4%, indicating a high probability that prices will fluctuate between approximately 4694.92 and 5233.68 this week—a range of about $270 above and below last Friday's closing price.