能源市场又迎来新动向。布伦特原油价格走势，如今已悄然成为美国国债收益率以及市场对美联储利率路径预期的重要推手——DHF资本公司的巴斯·库伊曼在研报中这样指出。他进一步分析道：“未来展望，很大程度上取决于中东局势的演变，以及油价如何波动。”若油价持续且深度下挫，或将强化反通胀压力，进而抑制货币政策收紧的预期；反之，一旦局势再度升级，通胀担忧重燃，很可能推高国债收益率。
转眼间，美联储即将公布利率决议。市场普遍预期，联邦基金利率将保持不变。但Generali投资公司的资深经济学家保罗·赞吉耶里认为，“真正的看点在于美联储的措辞。”他预计，政策制定者或将维持甚至强化其鹰派立场。原因在于，持续顽固的通胀、不断攀升的油价，以及联邦公开市场委员会内部的分歧，都为今年晚些时候进一步收紧政策留出了空间。赞吉耶里补充道：“这正好与Generali的宏观判断相符——即便整体通胀有所回落，粘性通胀仍会让央行保持谨慎。”这位经济学家还指出，市场关注的焦点，将不再是利率决议本身，而是关于9月会议的信号，以及通胀风险与经济增长之间如何权衡。
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