Overseas, the US Manufacturing and Services PMI for January both exceeded expectations, indicating overall robust overseas growth. However, adjustments in US tech stocks during the earnings season and significant volatility in precious metals led to a decline in global risk appetite, resulting in weaker performance for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.

Domestically, China's Manufacturing PMI for January fell back into contraction territory, with both supply and demand components weakening relative to seasonal levels. Meanwhile, price indices climbed further from elevated positions, suggesting that the rapid rise in upstream raw material prices has temporarily exerted some restraint on manufacturing supply and demand. Market risk appetite retreated, leading to softer A-share and Hong Kong markets, while bonds experienced modest gains.

Regarding market strategy, the bond market saw fluctuations last week, with the ultra-long end showing relative strength. Increased volatility in equity markets and a pullback in risk appetite did not translate into stronger-than-expected bond gains. This may be partly due to the fact that the AI narrative remains unrefuted, and there has been limited new information regarding monetary policy. Furthermore, the bond market had already priced in much of the existing information, leaving a lack of new, trend-positive catalysts. Additionally, during periods of perceived liquidity stress, there were indications of some funds selling bonds to meet redemption demands. The ultra-long end outperformed, supported by catch-up dynamics and hedging demand. Overall, sustained trading opportunities in the long end would likely require a further decline in risk appetite and additional monetary policy easing. Maintaining a neutral duration stance, engaging in contrarian strategies, and emphasizing the allocation value of high-coupon assets and long-duration assets could be considered.

For A-shares, recent sentiment has been dampened by volatility in overseas US equities and precious metals. Looking ahead, as volatility in both domestic and international assets is digested and stabilizes, and considering holiday effects, risk appetite in the equity market is expected to stabilize and gradually improve. Structurally, firstly, recent pressure from potential selling by national team funds has eased. Furthermore, as the market digests volatility, there is also a defensive shift away from high-valuation assets, leading to noticeable rebounds in large-cap stocks, pro-cyclical sectors (including consumption). The performance gap between consumption and growth sectors over a rolling 20-day period has narrowed significantly. For the pro-cyclical rebound to sustain beyond its current momentum, which appears limited by market forces alone, further supportive data confirmation will be necessary. Secondly, small-cap and growth-oriented sectors may still present relatively good opportunities. For growth stocks, the key point is that their valuation attractiveness has improved somewhat, with issues of high floating profits and crowded trading easing temporarily. For small-caps, the core consideration is the calendar effect, which historically suggests a potentially higher probability of positive performance after the Spring Festival.

Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the market remains in a phase characterized by 'benefiting from liquidity improvements but facing fundamental weakness.' Whether price levels improve by 2026 is a critical factor. Renminbi appreciation is conducive to improving Hong Kong's liquidity environment. However, a broad-based upturn in Hong Kong market beta is contingent upon an improvement in China's domestic growth environment, which requires not just reasonable quantitative growth but, more importantly, sustained improvement in prices, as indicated by metrics like the PPI.

In crude oil, recent catalysts such as US threats of strikes against Iran and cold weather have provided short-term upward pressure on prices. However, a significant fundamental improvement in oil supply and demand dynamics remains to be seen. With the situation in the Middle East unresolved, crude oil prices may exhibit a volatile trend.

For gold, safe-haven demand stemming from US-Europe geopolitical tensions and the consequent weakening of the US dollar catalyzed a sharp rally in precious metals in January. This was followed by a significant correction, triggered by overheated trading conditions and anticipated disruptions related to the Federal Reserve Chair nomination. The medium to long-term upward trend for gold prices remains看好, but short-term consolidation is needed to digest the recent speculative heat. (Risk Warning: Recent gold price volatility has been high. Investing in gold funds requires a full understanding of the risks involved, and decisions should be made prudently based on individual risk tolerance. It is also advisable to continuously monitor global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchasing activity, and relevant policy developments.)