Farmers across the American Corn Belt say they are confronting their most severe crisis in 40 years. The Trump administration's military actions against Iran have sent diesel and fertilizer costs soaring, pushing grain growers to the edge of bankruptcy.
This mounting pressure is the latest sign of the Middle East conflict spilling over into the American heartland. The crisis has now persisted for six months, and the US is approaching critical midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.
"Input costs have spiraled completely out of control," said Matt Bailey, a corn and soybean grower in eastern Nebraska. He noted that 11-52-0, a high-phosphorus compound fertilizer used at planting time, sold for $470 per ton a decade ago but has now surpassed $900 per ton. "It's overwhelming. How do you even budget for costs like this?"
Fuel and crop fertilizer prices have surged dramatically since the US launched military strikes against Iran in February. Prior to that, American farmers were already struggling with prolonged low grain prices and declining income. Many growers also consider themselves victims of Trump's trade war policies.
John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, said: "This is the worst financial downturn this industry has seen since the 1980s."
A recent study by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that without government assistance, growers of nine major crops including corn would lose $31 billion this year, with losses projected to reach $32 billion by 2027.
Faith Palum, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, stated that corn growers will lose $131 per acre this year, rising to $167 per acre by 2027, while soybeans will see losses of $80 per acre this year and $138 per acre next year. She noted that 2027 would mark the sixth consecutive year of negative returns for most major field crops in the US.
The hardships facing Midwest farmers illustrate how the burden of living costs, the inflationary effects of the Iran conflict, and the negative impacts of Trump's tariff policies are reaching a broader cross-section of Americans, spanning both urban working families and rural communities in the interior.
A recent poll shows that over 53% of registered voters say their personal financial situation has worsened since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. This outcome could cast a shadow over Republican efforts to maintain control of Congress.
Republican Senator Tom Tillis said Monday: "There are 71 days until the midterm elections. Right now we have no positive message that resonates with agricultural voters, and we haven't had one since last year's 'Liberation Day.'"
Trump has promised to support farmers, declaring in June, "We will never let you down." That same month, his administration proposed an $11 billion farmer aid package offering emergency relief to field crop and specialty crop producers. But major agricultural groups say the assistance is far too little.
Some of Trump's measures aimed at curbing food price increases have instead drawn strong backlash from the agricultural industry. Last week, he announced a 90-day tariff exemption on up to 300,000 tons of imported beef, angering cattle ranchers, some of whom condemned the move as a "betrayal."
Yet many farmers believe the most comprehensive blow to their operations has come from Trump's Iran war. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has contracted sharply, driving up diesel prices and disrupting global fertilizer supplies, even as fertilizer costs had already surged following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.