Abstract

Equinox Gold Corp. will report quarterly results after market close (Post Market) on February 18, 2026, with investor attention centered on the magnitude of top-line growth, earnings leverage, and execution following recent portfolio reshaping.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to Equinox Gold Corp.’s current-quarter revenue at 984.99 million with forecast adjusted EPS at 0.28 and EBIT at 552.59 million; the year-over-year growth implied by these projections is 73.49% for revenue and 30.01% for adjusted EPS. With last quarter’s gross profit margin at 51.20% and net profit margin at 10.45%, investors will watch how mix shifts and operational throughput affect margin trajectory into the new quarter.

The core operating portfolio is expected to emphasize Canadian and U.S. contributions following significant portfolio actions, with pipeline visibility enhanced by efficiencies at flagship assets and ongoing optimization across operating sites. The most promising platform in the near term is the Greenstone operation, which generated 195.58 million last quarter and sits at the center of production growth initiatives, while consolidated revenue is forecast to improve 73.49% year-over-year this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Equinox Gold Corp. delivered revenue of 819.00 million, a gross profit margin of 51.20%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of 85.58 million, a net profit margin of 10.45%, and adjusted EPS of 0.19 with 111.11% year-over-year growth.

A key highlight was the powerful rebound in attributable net profit quarter-on-quarter, with net profit rising by 258.88% as operational momentum, strong realized pricing, and disciplined cost control amplified earnings conversion.

By main business, Nicaragua contributed 244.86 million and Brazil 234.72 million, followed by Greenstone at 195.58 million; the quarter delivered a 91.18% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, indicating broad-based strength across operating centers and improved throughput.

Current Quarter Outlook

Primary Operations and Revenue Drivers

The current quarter setup showcases a sharp step-up in Equinox Gold Corp.’s consolidated revenue run-rate, with the finance tool’s forecast at 984.99 million and adjusted EPS projected at 0.28. This revenue trajectory, coupled with an EBIT forecast of 552.59 million, reflects both volume contributions and favorable unit economics achieved across the portfolio in the prior quarter. Given that last quarter’s gross margin was 51.20% and the net margin was 10.45%, the interplay of throughput, grade profiles, and operating costs will be pivotal in determining how much of the forecasted top-line uplift converts into incremental earnings.

Management activity since January has substantially reshaped the balance sheet and simplified the asset base, which should streamline operational execution this quarter. On January 23, 2026, Equinox Gold Corp. completed the sale of the Aurizona Mine, RDM Mine, and Bahia Complex in Brazil for total consideration of up to 1.02 billion; cash proceeds of 900.00 million are earmarked for debt repayment, including 500.00 million to fully retire the term loan and 300.00 million to retire the Sprott loan, with additional payments to its revolving credit facility. This reduces interest burden and enhances financial flexibility, supporting the company’s earnings quality and capacity to fund growth where returns are highest. The portfolio actions also realign near-term revenue mix toward Canadian and U.S. operations, which align well with the forecasted uplift in consolidated performance.

Operationally, the company disclosed record quarterly production of 247,024 ounces in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 922,827 ounces for 2025, and expects 2026 output to range between 700,000 and 800,000 ounces. Combined with an all-in sustaining cost outlook of 1,775 to 1,875 per ounce for 2026 and growth capital of 325.00 to 375.00 million, the production plan suggests capacity headroom for volume-driven operating leverage this quarter. Near-term, the forecasted 73.49% revenue increase and 30.01% adjusted EPS increase year-over-year serve as the central pillars of market expectations; the degree to which the company sustains last quarter’s EPS outperformance versus estimates and preserves a margin profile near the prior quarter’s levels will be central to investor judgments.

Greenstone Platform and Canadian Growth Initiatives

The Greenstone platform appears to be the most promising near-term engine for growth, both in operational throughput and strategic positioning. Last quarter, Greenstone delivered 195.58 million, giving it a substantial share of the revenue mix and a clear runway to expand as ramp-up advances. Recent commercial arrangements reinforce visibility on this asset’s contributions: Vox Royalty and Equinox Gold Corp. agreed to transfer Brazilian offtake obligations to a production-linked offtake stream over the Greenstone mine (29% of refined gold, with minimum deliveries of 63,600 ounces in 2026), while Vox’s existing Greenstone offtake stream—up to 58,500 ounces per year until March 1, 2027—remains in place. These structures confirm a continuing flow of refined gold deliveries tied to Greenstone, signaling consistent operational activity and support for forecasted revenue generation.

Management anticipates an 80% increase in annual Canadian gold production for 2026 following cornerstone ramp-ups and the Brazil unit sale. This shifts attention toward the Canada-focused growth arc, with Greenstone at the forefront. In parallel, the company announced on February 2, 2026 that its 2025 drilling program at the Valentine mine confirmed a new gold discovery at the Minotaur zone and encountered continuous mineralization at the Frank zone. For 2026, approximately 100 kilometers of drilling are planned at Valentine, targeting resource expansion and additional greenfield discoveries. While drilling results primarily affect medium-term resource conversion rather than immediate-quarter revenue, they improve the strategic outlook and enhance confidence in sustained production flows and asset optionality.

As mix skews toward Canadian output, cost structures and realized pricing form crucial variables in sustaining margin. The last quarter’s 51.20% gross margin sets a high baseline—this quarter, maintaining that level will depend on grade reconciliation, productivity metrics across shifts, equipment uptime, and the incremental benefits from completed capital programs. With forecast revenue up 73.49% year-over-year and EPS up 30.01% year-over-year, the degree of Greenstone’s operating rhythm will influence whether EBIT tracks close to the 552.59 million forecast. In aggregate, Greenstone provides the clearest path to compounding operational value and supports confidence in the current-quarter outlook.

Portfolio Rebalancing, Debt Reduction, and Cash Flow Conversion

Portfolio rebalancing this quarter, especially through the executed divestiture of certain Brazilian mines and structured offtake adjustments, strengthens the focus on assets with more consistent throughput and clearer visibility. The 900.00 million in cash proceeds received from the sale have been directed to rapidly de-risk the balance sheet by retiring substantial debt obligations: 500.00 million fully repaid on the term loan and 300.00 million to retire the Sprott loan, with an additional payment on the revolving credit facility. This debt reduction lowers interest expense and fortifies liquidity, thereby aiding cash flow conversion from forecast EBITDA and EBIT into free cash flows. This financial repositioning is timely as the company prepares for a year with significant growth capital (325.00 to 375.00 million), helping maintain flexibility for sustaining capital and targeted expansions.

Cash flow dynamics this quarter will be shaped by production volumes at key assets, realized gold prices, unit costs, and working capital movements. The prior quarter’s outperformance in both revenue and EPS relative to estimates (EPS actual of 0.19 versus an estimate of 0.14) suggests execution strength, and the forecast this quarter calls for a higher base from which to deliver incremental conversion. In this context, margin metrics are central. With net margin at 10.45% last quarter, modest improvements in unit costs or even stable costs paired with higher throughput can expand EBIT per ounce and help align results with the 552.59 million EBIT forecast. Post-divestiture, the average cost base may evolve, and the ability to sustain productivity gains while stabilizing grades will drive realized performance.

A pragmatic lens for this quarter is to track whether the positive net profit dynamics from late 2025 carry through. Last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit attributable to the parent company—258.88%—illustrates how quickly operational gains can translate when the portfolio is capable of higher throughput. Although this quarter’s revenue and EPS are forecast to rise 73.49% and 30.01% year-over-year, respectively, free cash flow sensitivity will be crucial. The outcome will depend on the timing of growth capital deployment, maintenance schedules, and efficiency gains that can tighten the gap between EBITDA and free cash flow in the short window of the reporting period.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will focus on three intertwined drivers of Equinox Gold Corp.’s stock performance in the results window. The first is earnings conversion and margin resilience. Last quarter’s gross margin of 51.20% and net margin of 10.45% provide context; if the forecasted revenue of 984.99 million can be converted with a similar margin profile, that would support the EPS forecast of 0.28 and the EBIT projection of 552.59 million. Any deviations—positive or negative—will be interpreted in terms of operating discipline and cost containment.

The second is balance sheet strengthening and its effect on valuation narratives. The completed asset sale for up to 1.02 billion, with 900.00 million received in cash and subsequent retirements of 800.00 million in loans, reduces financial risk and improves flexibility for targeted capital allocation. This can moderate interest expense and potentially support higher earnings quality, making the forecast EPS path more attainable. Execution around integrating the portfolio changes will be closely watched to ensure operating performance remains consistent through transition.

The third is operational momentum at cornerstone assets, led by Greenstone and supported by ongoing exploration and development at Valentine. The structured offtake linked to Greenstone provides a clear signal of sustained, production-tied deliveries. Meanwhile, the 2026 drilling program at Valentine—approximately 100 kilometers focused on the Minotaur and Frank zones—underscores the company’s strategy to backfill medium-term production with incremental resources. While exploration programs are not immediate revenue drivers, they build investor confidence by enhancing the depth of the production pipeline and the potential for volume resilience, which is aligned with the forecasted 73.49% year-over-year revenue growth for this quarter.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional stance in the reference window leans bullish. On February 3, 2026, RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating on Equinox Gold Corp., highlighting confidence in execution and the improved outlook following recent portfolio actions. Across the observed period, the balance of commentary aligns with a constructive view, with no identifiable bearish initiations or downgrades within the specified timeframe. As such, the ratio of bullish versus bearish views skews decisively toward bullish coverage, and the majority perspective endorses the current-quarter setup characterized by forecast revenue growth of 73.49% and forecast adjusted EPS growth of 30.01% year-over-year.

The bullish case increasingly rests on operating momentum and balance sheet improvements. Analysts emphasize the significance of the asset sale closing on January 23, 2026, and the rapid debt reduction that followed, which helps stabilize financial metrics and sharpen focus on high-potential assets. The expected 80% increase in annual Canadian production for 2026 and the supportive offtake structures at Greenstone have been viewed favorably, as they suggest greater reliability in production schedules and cash flow. Observers also note last quarter’s outperformance versus estimates—adjusted EPS at 0.19 against a 0.14 consensus—which sets a context for confidence into this quarter’s higher revenue base.

In dissecting the current-quarter forecasts—revenue at 984.99 million and adjusted EPS at 0.28—analysts concentrate on whether margins can be preserved as volume scales. The last quarter’s gross margin of 51.20% and net margin of 10.45% create a benchmark; if price realizations, grades, and cost discipline converge favorably, the EBIT projection of 552.59 million appears reasonable. The bullish consensus also draws on evidence of operational rigor, including record production in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the proactive refinement of the asset portfolio to reduce complexity and improve capital allocation efficiency. Greenstone’s contribution of 195.58 million last quarter, coupled with production-linked offtake commitments, is widely cited as a tangible anchor for near-term results.

Ultimately, the majority view among covering institutions anticipates a constructive set of results and outlook commentary on February 18, 2026, after market close. The focus will be on confirmation of revenue growth, visibility into margin sustainability, and clarity around capital deployment priorities for 2026. With forecast revenue growth at 73.49% year-over-year and adjusted EPS growth at 30.01% year-over-year, analysts with Buy ratings expect the company to articulate how asset mix shifts, debt reductions, and core asset ramp-ups translate into durable earnings power, which underpins the bullish stance in the current reporting cycle.